If President-elect Donald Trump follows through with his plan to apply a 25 per cent tariff on all Canadian exports to the United States, it’s sure going to hurt.
But it’s not like we’re completely unable to do anything about it.
The news came on Monday evening: writing on social media, Trump announced that “thousands of people are pouring through Mexico and Canada, bringing Crime and Drugs at levels never seen before.”
“On January 20th, as one of my many first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% Tariff on ALL products coming into the United States, and its ridiculous Open Borders. This Tariff will remain in effect until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country!”
So, yes, that will be a painful, terrible blow if Trump follows through. The vast majority of our exports — 77 per cent — are U.S.-bound. “All” products would include oil and gas — which means higher costs for American consumers who partially rely on Canadian energy, and Canadians who rely on exporting to the U.S.
But pay attention to the rest of what was said: the tariffs are being contemplated because of “Crime and Drugs.” Canada’s performance on both has been sub-par, and trade with the U.S. is now being used as a bargaining chip to change that.
Illegal crossings along the northern U.S. border, for one, have skyrocketed. The number of illegal entrants caught by U.S. Customs and Border Protection along the corridor has more than doubled each year for the past few years: 19,498 between fall 2023 and summer 2024; 7,630 in the same period the year prior and 2,238 the year before that. For context, the Mexican border saw 50,000 illegal crossers this month, which is considered relatively low (in December 2023, 250,000 migrants were apprehended).
American police in border zones are, naturally, unhappy with the entire situation, describing it as “out of control.” It’s so prevalent that Radio-Canada witnessed a number of apprehensions when it camped out in the zone earlier this year for a report.
While total migration volume is much larger at the Mexican border, more than twice as many terror suspects were arrested coming through the north in 2024 than in the south. One of those numbers would have been Muhammad Shahzeb Khan, who tried to secure illegal passage south to carry out a terror attack on New York Jews (he, at least, was caught by the RCMP before he could cross).
More broadly, U.S.-bound migrants fuel a now-well-documented smuggling economy that moves thousands of people across the border. Indian nationals are one of the biggest groups doing this, many of whom entered Canada with a visa at the airport. Which means that lax Canadian entry procedures — characterized by liberal rubber-stamping of visas and an inability to spot fraud — are a big part of the problem.
Another big part is Canada’s generous asylum system: it’s widely known that our backlog is so long that it allows want-to-be refugees to run around for upwards of two years before a decision on their file is made. Since Canada approves the vast majority of applicants — even on flimsy claims of bisexuality and political persecution — it’s a good bet. It’s also a convenient jumping-off point before heading to the U.S. illegally, which is a step many take.
The drug problem is another border issue that has recently spun out of control. Recent years have seen Canada become a drug exporter. Gangs have been able to get their hands on precursor chemicals to fentanyl to manufacture it directly in Canada, with most of these chemicals coming in from Hong Kong and China (though South America and the United States were also reported sources). We’ve gone from importing finished product to cooking it.
In 2022, the Criminal Intelligence Service Canada reported that 80 per cent of the chemicals used in fentanyl production “can be procured in Canada or legally imported from China” — and that gangs were using licenced companies to make those purchases. Which means a lot of it was legal.
As with immigration, Canada did eventually take some action. A couple rounds of regulatory clampdowns have since restricted precursor importation — one in June 2023 and another last summer. But the threat still remains on the radar of police, who remind us that gangs often stockpile the chemicals for use much later. The ever-gentle justice system, the harm-reduction philosophy in Ottawa and the RCMP staffing shortfalls don’t help.
When you zoom out, none of these harsh words from Trump are fair. Canada’s problems are real and growing, but at the scale of a sprouting dandelion. Mexico, on the other hand, is an oak tree. Whatever our faults, we certainly don’t deserve tariffs. And it’s not like the U.S. border has treated us well over the years, either: migrants, guns and drugs find their way northward as well, and you don’t see us threatening our neighbours for it.
But fair or not, Canada faces a Trump government willing to economically waterboard us into a recession come January. That’s the reality of our situation, and now we have to deal with it. As the less-powerful party, it’s going to mean more compromise on our end.
Asylum-granting criteria can be tightened; visa fraud can be further attacked; backlogs can be reduced; swifter deportations of the expired-visa community can be made; a tougher approach to drug trafficking can be taken. And when all of this inevitably offends the courts, the notwithstanding clause can be invoked.
It can’t all be done by January, but a good-faith commitment to untangling the problems can be made. Trump is a negotiator — we might as well try to negotiate.
National Post