The word in the NHL is that if you are not in the mix at American Thanksgiving, you are not going to be in the mix.
American Thanksgiving is Thursday and the Montreal Canadiens are in 31st place in a 32-team league. Unless there is some miracle, this is another year Montreal will not rise up the standings.
Montreal started four games in six nights with the Utah Hockey Club at the Bell Centre on Tuesday. The Canadiens lost in overtime 3-2.
Wilde Horses
There wasn’t a lot to like except the much better organization on defence. However, it is coming at the expense of any offence, and any excitement. It was a yawner. The Canadiens had only 12 shots on goal in regulation time.
Jayden Struble scored on a 45-foot wrist shot, and Alex Newhook counted from one foot away proving that going to the dirty area is the surest way to score a goal. Christian Dvorak hit a cross bar, and Cole Caufield had a tremendous chance early.
Other than that, it was an extremely tame game for the fans.
Wilde Goats
It’s the quarter mark of the season, and with that comes a moment to admit it’s not going all that well for two players who are supposed to be important components of the top six.
The third-pair defender Jayden Struble has more goals than centre Kirby Dach and forward Juraj Slafkovsky. Dach and Slafkovsky get power play time, while Struble gets penalty kill time. Lucas Condotta has the same goal total as Dach and Slafkovsky. We are 21 games into the season.
In one instance, Dach is returning from knee reconstruction. In another instance, Slafkovsky is only 20 years of age. However, this one goal for each of them is concerning, and eventually, if they don’t find another gear, management will have to find another player to fill their top-six role.
Right now, the two are on pace for four-goal seasons. That would be extremely unsettling. Head Coach Martin St. Louis tried to send a message by putting them fourth on the board for lines before Monday’s practice.
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However, when the game started, they quickly got second-line minutes and second-line matchups, because they’re needed. When the game starts, it doesn’t matter what the whiteboard looks like. It matters what the final score is and Slafkovsky and Dach are needed. They need to step up soon.
No negativity is pointed toward them on the rebuild overall because of extenuating circumstances, but the clock will begin ticking in the second half of this season.
It’ll tick moreso for Dach, who is 23 years of age, and realistically has two seasons to be a far better goal scorer than one every 21 games. He also was caught out on the game-winner because he couldn’t get to the bench. His overtime shift was at two minutes when he got walked on the game winner for Utah.
Wilde Cards
Contrary to impatient and popular belief, the Canadiens rebuild is doing extremely well. The job is to accumulate assets, and as it stands, it seems the only spot Montreal is struggling is centre.
The rebuild needs to add a star centre who is the equal to and perhaps even better than Nick Suzuki. Historically, cup champions have a top-two combination at centre that meets a certain standard.
If the first-line centre has a superstar quality that manages 100 points or more, the second-line centre of that club can get fewer points, if they play a strong 200-foot game able to neutralize other team’s top players.
Recent examples of this winning formula are Alex Barkov in Florida with that superstar quality getting support from Sam Bennett. In Colorado, the superstar was Nathan MacKinnnon who got support from the excellent 200-foot game of Nazem Kadri.
An example in Tampa Bay is a great one as Brayden Point was the first-line centre amassing a high level of points with Anthony Cirelli as the second-line centre. Cirelli is excellent at neutralizing the other team’s best.
Another example of this formula is in Vegas for their Stanley Cup. The star was Jack Eichel. The second-line centre was a reliable analytics darling Chandler Stephenson who is a 60-point player, but can win the middle with his intelligent play.
The second top-two centre combination is a one-two tandem that doesn’t have a superstar, but has two strong point-per-game centres. An example of this is found in the St. Louis Blues cup run with Ryan O’Reilly and Brayden Schenn.
The Canadiens have the one player in Suzuki, but they do not have a second centre who fits into the role of also averaging close to a point-per-game while being defensively responsible.
Whatever formula one looks at historically down the middle to win cups, the Canadiens do not have it presently. Kirby Dach is not obviously Jack Eichel, and he isn’t Chandler Stevenson either. Michael Hage is a long way from expecting that he is Alex Barkov or Sam Bennett.
The Canadiens need another centre, and it can be done without the draft. The Washington Capitals acquired for a song the third pick overall Dylan Strome, who has 29 points in 21 games this season as he finally breaks out to reach the plateau that was expected of him.
The Los Angeles Kings acquired via free agency Philip Danault. He allowed only three 5-on-5 goals against the entire COVID-season schedule while matching-up against Connor McDavid, Auston Matthews, and Mark Schiefele. While not an exciting player, Danault fits the cup build, if he is supporting a star first line centre who will provide the offence.
The Canadiens can also acquire a centre via the draft. Michael Misa fits the superstar bill while Suzuki would be the two-way middle-winner at centre. If Suzuki is to be the number one centre of this cup winning lineup, his support needs to be as good as him in both points and 200-foot game.
There are always outliers. It is not a math formula. It is an historical formula, but it seems as if the the Canadiens have to come up with more, or there won’t be a parade. Optimally, they are going to need a superstar. Less optimally, they are going to need another Nick Suzuki.
Historically, down the middle, less than that won’t be enough.
Brian Wilde, a Montreal-based sports writer, brings you Call of the Wilde on globalnews.ca after each Canadiens game.
