Labour would lose its majority if an election was held tomorrow while Reform would double its seat count, latest forecasting has shown.
The Nowcast model, which is based on recent GB wide polling, is weighted for recency as well as historic pollster accuracy.
It predicted Labour to lose 106 seats, reducing their total to 305 MPs, below the threshold of 326 needed for a majority.
This would mean Sir Keir Starmer’s party would likely need to form a coalition to govern as Cameron’s Conservatives did in 2010 when they won 306 seats.
Nowcast model’s seat forecast in November 2024
Election Maps UK
The forecasting showed the Conservatives would gain a whopping 93 MPs as their vote share swelled to 26.5 per cent.
Reform also benefited with their number of MPs doubling from five to 10. The five seats the model shows Reform as gaining are:
Bradford South
Labour candidate Judith Cummins defeated second place Reform candidate Ian Eglin here by 4,362 votes.
Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes
On the south coast of the Humber, Labour’s Melanie Onn defeated Reform UK’s Oliver Freeston by a similar margin of 4,803 votes.
Amber Valley
Another Labour MP set to be defeated by Reform is Linsey Farnsworth. She beat Reform’s Alex Stevenson into second place in July by a slim 3,554 votes.
Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr
The first of two seats Farage’s party are set to gain in Wales is Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr. Labour’s Steve Witherden defeated Reform’s Oliver Lewis here by 3,815 votes.
Llanelli
Rounding out the list of Reform gains from Labour is Llanelli is southwest Wales. The farming heavy constituency elected Labour’s Nia Griffith over Reform’s Gareth Beer on a thin majority of 1,504 votes.
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Seat forecast of Britain according to Nowcast model (hexagonal)
Election Maps UK
The Nowcast model also predicted five Reform holds in the constituencies they won in July. They are:
Ashfield
Lee Anderson constituency he won by 5,509 votes.
Clacton
Party leader Nigel Farage’s constituency he won by 8,405 votes.
Great Yarmouth
Rupert Lowe’s constituency he won by 1,426 votes.
Boston and Skegness
Richard Tice’s seat he won by 2,010 votes.
South Basildon and East Thurrock
James McMurdock won here by a miniscule 98 votes.
Elsewhere, the model showed the Liberal Democrats losing three seats putting their total on 69.
The SNP were up six, Plaid Cymru down one while the Greens remained on four.
This forecast comes as a poll asking to ‘call a general election’ hit two million signatures this morning.
The poll’s creator Michael Westwood wrote on the government’s petition website: “I would like there to be another General Election.
“I believe the current Labour Government have gone back on the promises they laid out in the lead up to the last election.”
Petitions which reach 100,000 signatures are almost always debated in parliament.
There is almost zero chance a petition will trigger a general election, however, and commentators have pointed out how holding another election five months after the first one could undermine our democracy.
But for Sir Keir Starmer, the petition is yet another thorn in Labour’s side with negative polling stories surfacing weekly.