Did Edmonton Oilers hockey boss Jeff Jackson screw up this summer? Can did new GM Stan Bowman fix it?
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So far the Edmonton Oilers are not the forceful team they were last year with Kris Knoblauch as coach and Ken Holland as GM.
The facts?
In 69 regular season games, Knoblauch coached his team to 97 points, a 0.70 points percentage, with 16.2 Grade A shots for per game, just 11.6 against, a +4.6 Grade A shot differential per game. That translated into a 3.7 goals for and just 2.7 goals against per game.
Edmonton topped that off by coming within one game of winning the Stanley Cup.
This year? In 20 games Edmonton has just 22 points, a 0.55 points percentage, with 14.9 Grade A shots for and 11.7 against on average, a +3.2 Grade A shots differential per game.
When you factor in some bad luck shooting and weak goaltending, that has translated to 2.8 goals for per game, 3.1 against.
Not good. Not terrible, but not good, and not nearly so great as we saw last year and was expected this year, especially with the positive reviews interim GM and current hockey head honcho Jackson got for his work in July, bringing in numerous players on discount contracts.
The thought has now come to many observers of the team that maybe Jackson didn’t do so well as most of us (including me) thought in July.
This notion was summed up well by Oilers fan Trent Wilhauk, who said on social media after Edmonton’s disquieting loss to Montreal: “Ok I’ll say it… IMO…. Jeff Jackson made way too many mistakes July 1 to be a General Manager in the NHL. Those mistakes cost the Oilers youth, speed & most importantly defensive depth. Bowman has a mess to clean up and it might cost the Oilers this season to do it. Always fun times in Oil Country.”
Did Jackson screw up?
The team is worse, and Jackson is ultimately responsible, but is it too much to say this early that he screwed up?
On one level, it most certainly is. When you factor in the willy nilly nature of puck luck and NHL goaltending, along with Edmonton’s encouraging +3.2 Grade A shots per game differential, it’s fair to suggest that the team has played better than its record shows. Edmonton could easily have two or three or four more wins by now.
At the same time, it’s not too early to judge the players he brought in and the players he let go, as 20 games is a decent sample size to judge an NHLer. In this regard, we can figure out Jackson’s plus-minus in terms of his roster.
- MINUS.Replacing Warren Foegele and bringing in Viktor Arvidsson. One the surface this looks like a negative move by Jackson. Foegele is 46th in even strength scoring for regular forwards, with 2.56 points per 60, while Arvidsson is 279th at 1.1 per 60. Foegele was also a valuable PKer, while Arvidsson has yet to prove himself in that role. Arvidsson will make $4.0 million this year. The one upside is that when it comes to contributions to Grade A shots, Arvidsson’s plus-minus is about as good as we saw from Foegele last year. He’s been as solid a two-way player at even strength, chipping in on the same rate of Grade A shots for as Foegele did last season, but he’s simply yet to put up many points. I put a lot of weight in the Grade A shot metric, but still have to give Jackson a minus here.
- MINUS.Replacing Ryan McLeod with Adam Henrique (and Matthew Savoie). Essentially Henrique has taken McLeod’s job in Edmonton Core 12 as the third-line centre. McLeod is 70th in NHL scoring for forwards with 2.35 points per 60, and was a valuable penalty killer. Henrique is 301st in NHL scoring with 0.99 points per 60, and has yet to shine on the PK. McLeod had a significantly better Grade A shots plus-minus last year than we see from Henrique this year. Henrique will make $3.0 million this year, McLeod $2.1 million, while the skilled Savoie is progressing well enough in the AHL, though he’s not ripping it up. Overall, as it stands now, Jackson would have been better off sticking with McLeod.
- MINUS. Signing Jeff Skinner with money that could have been used to sign Philip Broberg and/or Dylan Holloway. Skinner is 221st in NHL scoring for forwards, 1.42 points per 60. That’s not good enough for a player brought in to score and earning $3.0 million this year. Skinner has also struggled defensively so far, with him and RNH having the highest rate of mistakes on Grade A shots per game for a winger (with RNH playing some games at centre).
- PLUS. Signing Mattias Janmark. Janmark is 152nd in NHL scoring, 1.83 points per 60, which is a solid rate for a checking forward. He earns $1.45 million per season, but that’s OK pay rate for a player who puts up a few points but is a checking demon.
- PLUS: Signing Connor Brown. Brown is 256th in NHL scoring, 1.24 points per 60, which is an OK rate for a checking forward. He earns just $1.0 million this year, so the Oilers are getting decent value out of this signing.
- MINUS: Signing Corey Perry. Perry is 319th in NHL scoring, 0.88 per 60. That’s not good enough for a player who provides little in the way of speed or physical play. Perry has played 15 games, so he’ll be paid his bonus for a cap hit of $1.4 million this year.
- PLUS: Bringing back Troy Stecher. Stecher earns just $787,500 and he’s playing decent hockey. He’s working out so far.
- PLUS: Bringing back Calvin Pickard. He’s been OK-ish in the nets at a cheap price, $1 million.
When it comes to the heart of the team, the Core 12 players (Top 7 forwards, Top 4 d-men, top goalie), Jackson has three minus marks, Arvidsson, Henrique and Skinner. He’s got four plus marks (Janmark, Stecher, Brown, Pickard) and one minus (Perry) for players in less vital roles.
But now it gets worse.
Given that offer sheets for Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg were also a clear possibility last summer, would Jackson have been wise to hold off on signing Skinner and use that money to tie up Holloway and Broberg? I’m going to give him an extra minus for that.
I say all this even as I was pleased with his work in July, but that was based on him also having confidence in signing Broberg and Holloway on bargain contracts, and executing such a move. That failure taints a lot of the better moves he pulled off. For example, the loss of speedy McLeod and Foegele would have been offset by the retention of speedy and physical Holloway.
Overall, so far at least, Jackson failed to improve the roster this past summer.
Did Bowman fix Jackson’s mistakes?
While Jackson’s work turned out to be a mixed bag (and things could change as players like Arvidsson and Skinner find their legs as Oilers attackers), there’s the possibility that Bowman’s first moves as GM — deciding not to match on Holloway and Broberg, while trading a 4th round pick for Vasili Podkolzin and a 3rd round rick and expensive Cody Ceci for Ty Emberson — provided a fix for Jackson’s mistakes.
- PLUS: Replacing Dylan Holloway with Vasili Podkolzin. Holloway so far is 312th in NHL scoring with 0.93 points per game. Podkolzin has no goals but he’s 246th, with 1.28 points per 60. They are both effective physical players. As a two-way player Podz been dramatically better than Holloway was last season. Podkolzin is far less prone to turnovers and to losing his check. He doesn’t need the puck to succeed, but can work as a glue player on a line with top attackers. This trade is a clear win for Bowman.
- PLUS:Ty Emberson replacing Codi Ceci. Ceci was OK last year as a two-way player, but Emberson has been better, at least as good on defence at even strength and far more physical. The one downside is that Ceci was brilliant on the PK last year. Emberson has yet to prove himself there. Overall, though, given Ceci’s $3.25 million salary and Emberson making $950,000 this season, I’d say this is another win for Bowman.
- MINUS: Signing Travis Dermott. He has yet to work out as an Oilers, but he makes just $775,000. This Bowman signing is not a win, but not a major loss, given Dermott’s limited role and the fact his game may still pick up as he gets more familiar with his new team.
Again, Jackson’s signings may still work out. I expect Arvidsson to find his stride on a top line once he’s healthy again. It could well be Skinner will also find a sweet spot in the Oilers line-up, maybe on Connor McDavid’s wing. Henrique was solid in the playoffs last year and a repeat performance will justify that signing. Even Corey Perry, who has struggled, may contribute if he’s used more reasonably, say every second game. But, overall, Jackson’s moves have been a drag on this team, while Bowman’s moves have done much to remedy things. The team needed some youth, speed and hitting and Bowman somehow found those ingredients in Podkolzin and Emberson and paid little to bring them in.
It’s a good thing then, I suppose, that Bowman is now GM, not Jackson. To his credit, and even as he was being so praised in July, Jackson realized he needed an experienced GM and he signed one.
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