Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals may be anxious about the rise of Pierre Poilievre, but their real problem isn’t the Conservative leader. It’s Donald Trump.
With the former president returning to the White House in January, Trudeau faces a rapid dismantling of his progressive agenda at the hands of Trump’s new administration. From immigration to the environment, trade to health care, Trump’s bro-heavy cabinet is poised to upend American policy — and, by extension, rip up Canada’s, before the Conservatives even get the chance.
First up, immigration. Trudeau’s mismanagement of the file has already destroyed the Canadian consensus on the issue: according to polls, more than half of us now think there are too many newcomers here.
This week, Trump announced he will declare a “national emergency” and use the military to remove illegal immigrants when he takes office. What this means isn’t clear, but we do know that Trump’s deportation plans could see Canada overrun with migrants fleeing ahead of their potential removal.
How is Trudeau responding? On Sunday, he released a seven-minute video blaming our immigration problems on “bad actors” who abused the system — unscrupulous colleges, greedy consultants, unethical corporations — and said he should have “acted quicker” to curb these abuses. It’s too little, too late, and unlikely to impress anyone in D.C. — but it signals a sea change from a leader who preached for years that diversity is our strength.
Then there’s the environment. Canada’s environment policy, designed to align with international climate targets, will clash with that of a U.S. administration bent on rolling back Biden-era climate regulations.
Former Liberal finance minister Bill Morneau advised that Trudeau should pause plans for the oil and gas emissions cap that was announced earlier this month, as we seek to be a “good partner” to the United States. “It will be tough for them to come around to that, but I don’t think there’s really a choice,” he said.
Trade is no safer. Trump’s threat to impose 10 to 20 per cent across-the-board tariffs would decimate the Canadian economy, which sends around two-thirds of its exports to the U.S., and our free trade deal with the U.S. and Mexico is up for renegotiation in 2026.
Bargaining chips will be essential, and one of those may be supply management in the dairy industry — a sacred cow in Quebec, but a no-go in Wisconsin. Before Ottawa even gets to the table, though, Ontario Premier Doug Ford and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith are already trying to stave off disaster, throwing Mexico under the bus to preserve the Ontario auto industry and curry favour for Alberta energy companies.
Our country’s single-payer health system, long held up by progressives as a key differentiator between Canada and the U.S., will face pressure, too. But there, Canada could find opportunity.
Trump’s new secretary of health, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is vaccine-averse and a basher of big pharma. If Canada is smart, we will position ourselves as the last North American haven for pharmaceutical R&D — but that would mean scrapping Trudeau’s national pharmacare plan, which threatens Canadians’ access to cutting-edge drugs.
Finally, there’s foreign policy. On this front, Trump has appointed China hawks like Marco Rubio and Russian sympathizer Tulsi Gabbard. To get ahead of a looming withdrawal of support for Ukraine, on Sunday, U.S. President Joe Biden greenlit the use of American-made long-range missiles for strikes inside Russia.
But the rest of the word is already turning to the new boss in town, Trump. The G20 statement put out Monday on Ukraine doesn’t even mention Russia, to Trudeau’s dismay. “No, it’s not strong enough for me,” he said. But will anybody care?
So forget about the next election. The question isn’t what Poilievre will do, but what will be left to do. In the coming year, Ottawa’s biggest battles will be waged across the border, not the aisle.
Postmedia Network
Tasha Kheiriddin is Postmedia’s national politics columnist.