After a tumultuous, even nasty campaign, including two assassination attempts and persistent threats from Iran, Donald Trump made a stunning comeback breaking through the Democratic “Brick Wall” of blue states in the mid-west and sweeping all seven, key battleground states. Economic issues and immigration were top concerns for voters and, when three quarters of Americans think the country is “on the wrong track,” the incumbent has a huge problem. Trump’s pledge that he would “fix it” resonated.
Concerns about Trump’s character and his deportment gave Democrats hope but did not answer the public’s anti-establishment angst. Although experts predicted the election would be a tossup, Trump emerged with a thumping victory, winning the popular vote and the Electoral College handily, while leading his party victories for the White House, the Senate and presumably retaining the House.
Kamala Harris, who was rarely visible as vice president, was anointed as the Democrat candidate when party leaders ‘persuaded’ Joe Biden to step down following his disastrous June debate with Donald Trump — a carefully controlled coup that side-stepped basic democratic norms.
Harris had difficulty presenting herself as an agent of change while defending the Biden record. When asked by one of the hosts of The View if she would have done something differently than Biden during the past four years, she replied, “There is not a thing that comes to mind.”
Harris started with “hope, joy and opportunity,” concentrated heavily on abortion, and then pivoted in the homestretch to virulent attacks on Trump referring to him as a “fascist,” who is “unfit for office” and “dangerous,” themes amplified by surrogates like the Obamas and Bill Clinton whose involvement in her campaign may have diminished Harris’ stature.
Trump turned the tables on the Democrats’ historical base making significant inroads across the political spectrum, notably with the working class, Latinos, Blacks, Asians, suburban women, independents and voters under 30. He galvanized his support with messages on inflation and personal safety. He pointedly attacked the Biden-Harris record and repeatedly asked whether voters “had been better off under his administration.” That struck a chord with a sour public mood.
A 53-47 Republican Senate majority will help gain approval for Trump’s cabinet, judicial and other appointments.
The Democrats have become more elitist, dominated by academics and billionaires from high tech and Wall Street, as well as Hollywood and other celebrities and are increasingly out of touch with the public mood. As one Democrat told the New York Times: “Inflation and Immigration are not messaging problems. They are reality problems.”
Democrats are shell-shocked and in need of serious soul-searching. Since Harris spent more than twice as much as Trump on the campaign — US$1 billion(C$1,392,395,000) — recriminations are now rampant.
America’s legacy media, which unabashedly supported Democrats, disgraced themselves and should learn to listen more and lecture less to regain credibility.
Harris had little time (107 days) to prepare and, for the most part, avoided sharp scrutiny. Choosing Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate instead of Pennsylvania’s Josh Shapiro may have made tactical sense avoiding a spat with the progressive left wing of her party, but it did not add gravitas to the ticket. Conversely, Trump’s selection of Ohio Senator J.D. Vance was panned initially by many in the media, but he offered articulate, disciplined views on the MAGA agenda and pointedly pushed back on hostile media questions. He is probably the odds-on favourite as Trump’s eventual successor.
The campaign echoed the deep political and cultural divide in America. Calls for unity were drowned out by the personal acrimony expressed by both candidates. The leftward, woke tilt of the Biden-Harris Administration, e.g. tax-payer funds to prison inmates for gender transition, provided ample fodder for Trump. The public cannot be pushed too far in directions they do not wish to go.
Trump boldly promised tax relief (on tips and overtime for workers, on social security and for business), and a major dismantling of regulations allowing energy to flourish while EV production mandates are cancelled. He intends to designate Elon Musk to cut US$2 trillion (CA$2,784,710,000,000) from government spending and to tackle the “deep state” in the Administration that he believes thwarted many of his first term plans.
Unsurprisingly, Harris received 92.5 per cent of the votes in Washington, D.C.
A consummate entertainer who thrives in election campaigns, Trump seldom varied his widely embellished pitch but conveyed an image of strength for the burdens of the job and as a leader who will stand up against powerful interests and adversaries seeking to harm America. Even some voters who detested him wondered whether Harris was up to that job. Trump will certainly demand that allies pay more for global security.
Canadians need to brace themselves, anticipating a president whose behaviour will be impulsive, even abrasive and disruptive throughout his final term as president.
As host of next year’s G-7 Summit, Canada will see how the second coming of Trump will deal with key western leaders. He is certain to be vehement on our pitiful defense contribution when global tensions are acute in the Middle East, with Ukraine and with China on Taiwan. To have any credibility on pressing issues, including trade, Canada must make a bolder, quicker commitment to meet our 2 per cent NATO commitment in three years, not eight.
On trade, Trump is predictably protectionist and the review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) in 2026 will be arduous. He sees tariffs as the consummate persuader and has already labelled Canada, along with Mexico, China, and the EU as “screwing” the U.S. on trade. We can only hope that, as with the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), his bark will be worse than his bite.
Initiating common development approaches to energy and critical minerals would strengthen North America’s capability to blunt the challenge from China.
Since the public service is the fastest growing sector in Canada, the government should emulate Trump’s plan for Elon Musk and designate a prominent CEO to tackle costs, waste, and the excessive regulatory burden that stifles Canada’s economic growth.
If Canada tacks in a markedly different economic direction than America, our prospects will be grim. Just as for Democrats, a reality check is in order. Common sense should prevail.
Derek H. Burney is a former, 30 year career diplomat who served as Ambassador to the United States of America from 1989-1993.
National Post