Labour’s planned VAT raid on private schools has triggered a larger-than-expected exodus to the state sector, with more than 3,000 pupils applying to join state schools between June and September.
Fresh data obtained from 124 local councils across Britain reveals the scale of the movement, which already matches Labour’s projected figures for the entire 2024-25 academic year.
The Independent Schools Council (ISC) reports a further 2,500 pupils have given notice to leave in January, when the 20 per cent levy is set to begin.
These figures significantly exceed government projections, raising concerns about state school capacity.
The data, seen by The Telegraph, shows the highest concentration of transfers around London and the Home Counties, where state school availability is under most pressure.
Harrow Council in north-west London received 167 in-year transfer requests from private school pupils between June and September.
Rachel Reeves confirmed the plans to charge VAT on private school tuition in the Budget
PA
Surrey County Council followed with 161 requests, while West Sussex County Council logged 131 applications.
Edinburgh, where nearly a quarter of pupils attend private schools, received 151 queries and applications.
Hampshire County Council reported 101 applications, with Cambridgeshire and Buckinghamshire recording 99 and 92 requests respectively.
Treasury costings had assumed no more than 3,000 children would leave private schools during the entire 2024-25 school year due to the VAT policy.
The Government’s recent impact assessment projected the policy would raise £9billion by the end of the decade, £300million more annually than previously estimated.
These calculations were based on an expected 35,000 pupils moving to state schools by 2029-30, costing the Treasury up to £300million per year.
However, with over 3,000 transfers already recorded from just 124 of Britain’s 207 education authorities, the total figure could exceed 5,000 pupils by September alone.
Despite Labour’s assurances of sufficient state school capacity, the transfer of pupils is creating localised pressure points.
Some local authorities are already reporting they have no available spaces for incoming students.
In Ealing, west London, the council has warned parents of Year 10 and 11 pupils that school transfers are “not advisable” due to practical constraints.
The council cannot guarantee GCSE pupils will be able to select the same subjects in new schools.
They have also cautioned that any previously completed GCSE coursework cannot be transferred between schools.
Shadow education minister Neil O’Brien MP has criticised Labour’s approach to the policy.
“Labour’s ideologically driven education tax will cause lots of problems for parents and for state schools too,” he told The Telegraph.
He accused Labour of consistently ignoring warnings from schools, teachers, and concerned parents while proceeding with the “disruptive policy” mid-school year.
“Now the consequences they were warned of time and time again are starting to materialise,” he said.
O’Brien urged the Government to “take off the blinders and recognise the impact this is going to have on children, including vulnerable pupils with special needs, before it is too late.”
ISC chief executive Julie Robinson highlighted the Government’s underestimation of the policy’s impact.
“We have consistently said that the Government’s expectations on pupil movement have underestimated how much pressure VAT will place on schools and parents alike,” she said.