BEST BETS
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (6-2) at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (2-7)
LINE: MINNESOTA -4.5
Now that T.J. Hockenson has a game under his belt in his return from last season’s serious knee injury, the Vikings offence – which includes recently acquired former Jaguars left tackle Cam Robinson – is at full strength and about to face the NFL’s second-worst pass defence. The Jaguars have covered in back-to-back losses to the Packers and Eagles, but their long list of injury woes includes Trevor Lawrence, who may or may not play because of a damaged non-throwing shoulder.
TAKING: MINNESOTA -4.5
Vikings 30, Jaguars 17
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (2-7) at CHICAGO BEARS (4-4)
LINE: Chicago by 6.5
The Bears haven’t lost at Soldier Field in more than a calendar year (Oct. 15, 2023) and, after two straight dismal performances that followed their bye, they will win their 10th in a row on home soil against a Patriots team that has the third-worst point differential (-76) in the league and is coming off a 20-17 loss in Nashville. Caleb Williams will have something he didn’t have in the last two losses — time to throw — as the Patriots generally don’t pressure the quarterback, and D’Andre Swift will do some damage against the 26th-ranked run defence.
TAKING: CHICAGO -6.5
Bears 27, Patriots 13
TENNESSEE TITANS (2-6) at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (5-3)
LINE: L.A. Chargers by 7.5
The Titans defence still ranks first in total yards allowed, but injuries in the secondary are catching up. Before their 20-17 win last week over the inept Patriots, who are last in the league in points scored, Tennessee surrendered 86 points in losses to the Bills and Lions. Whether it’s Will Levis or Mason Rudolph at QB, the Titans also turn the ball over more than any team in the league except the Raiders. Justin Herbert’s ankle appears to be feeling stronger every day, and with Quentin Johnston back from the injured list, the Chargers will continue a trend that has seen them post wins of 18 and 17 points in the last two weeks.
TAKING: L.A. CHARGERS -7.5
Chargers 28, Titans 10
THE REST
NEW YORK GIANTS (2-7) vs. CAROLINA PANTHERS (2-7)
(in Munich)
LINE: N.Y. Giants by 6.5
What did Germany do to deserve this? In a pillow fight between two teams with a combined 4-14 record, Bryce Young will try to make it two in a row as he faces a Giants pass defence (ranked ninth) considerably better than the Saints pass defence (27th) he saw last week. Daniel Jones will beat Carolina’s NFL-worst ‘D’ with his feet as well as the few dozen passes he will deliver to Malik Nabers.
TAKING: N.Y. GIANTS -6.5
Giants 27, Panthers 17
DENVER BRONCOS (5-4) at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (8-0)
LINE: Kansas City by 8
The Chiefs had defeated the Broncos 16 times in a row before losing in Denver a little more than a year ago, but they rarely beat anyone (twice this season) by more than a touchdown and Patrick Mahomes is unlikely to be at his best after rolling an ankle Monday night. The Broncos were embarrassed in a 31-point loss to Baltimore last week, but before that their defence had been one of the league’s best this season. Patrick Surtain II should limit the damage done by DeAndre Hopkins as Denver makes things uncomfortable to the division leaders coming off an overtime game and short week.
TAKING: DENVER +8
Chiefs 20, Broncos 14
BUFFALO BILLS (7-2) at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (4-5)
LINE: Buffalo by 4
The Bills have averaged just under 30 points while winning their last four games but they traditionally struggle (14-38 ATS since 1998) the week after playing Miami, and next week they host the Chiefs in a game that could have No. 1 seed implications. The Colts are coming off a 21-13 loss to the Vikings that marked the biggest point differential in any game they have played this season, and Jonathan Taylor should keep this one close for them too.
TAKING: INDIANAPOLIS +4
Bills 23, Colts 20
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (4-4) at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (4-5)
LINE: San Francisco by 5.5
Losing their top two receivers in the same game hasn’t completely derailed the Bucs, who have dropped three straight but kept it close against teams with a combined record of 20-6. Coming off a bye, the Niners have had two weeks to prepare for this game, and it looks like they’ll finally welcome Christian McCaffrey into the 2024 season, which is like Connor McDavid rejoining the Edmonton Oilers lineup.
TAKING: SAN FRANCISCO -5.5
Niners 31, Buccaneers 20
ATLANTA FALCONS (6-3) at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (2-7)
LINE: Atlanta by 3.5
Can the boost of firing the bad head coach (Dennis Allen) and replacing him with the special teams guy (Darren Rizzi) offset the absence of three injured receivers (Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed and Bub Means) and the outstanding corner (Marshon Lattimore) who was traded? Only if the Saints get big-time games from Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill, who scored all three touchdowns when they lost 26-24 to Atlanta in Week 4. That victory was the start of a stretch that saw the Falcons win five of six, and they should pad their lead in the NFC South even if Drake London doesn’t play, but it should also again go down to the wire.
TAKING: NEW ORLEANS +3.5
Falcons 24, Saints 21
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (6-2) at WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (7-2)
LINE: Washington by 2.5
Best game of the week, with the Commanders’ third-ranked offence going up against a ninth-ranked Steelers defence that will go up from there with the addition of another pass rusher in Preston Smith. While 18 starting quarterbacks have been sacked more often than elusive Jayden Daniels, here’s a stat you might not know: Mike Tomlin’s teams are 25-6 against rookie quarterbacks over his Hall of Fame run as Steelers caoch. Coming off a bye, Tomlin has had two weeks to prepare.
TAKING: PITTSBURGH +2.5
Steelers 23, Commanders 21
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (6-2) at DALLAS COWBOYS (3-5)
LINE: Philadelphia by 7
Can Saquon Barkley do a backwards leapfrog over a miserable Dallas defence that has given up 104 points over the last three games? Maybe. Micah Parsons might finally return this week, but with four straight wins the Eagles are starting to fly (Eagles fly) in their pursuit of the Commanders, averaging 28.3 points during the streak. With Cooper Rush replacing Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb (shoulder) either not playing or playing hurt, Dallas will be hard-pressed to reach double digits against an Eagles defence which has skyrocketed up the charts to a Top 3 ranking.
TAKING: PHILADELPHIA -7
Eagles 28, Cowboys 10
NEW YORK JETS (3-6) at ARIZONA CARDINALS (5-4)
LINE: N.Y. Jets by 1.5
The Jets finally started to get their act together when they scored 21 second-half points in their must-win victory last week over the Texans, a night that saw Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson combined with Aaron Rodgers for 181 receiving yards and three touchdowns. They now face the 24th-ranked pass defence, but Arizona can pressure the QB (ask Caleb Williams) and the Jets protection still looks a little shaky. The Cards also run the ball well, and the Jets ground stop crew isn’t great, but New York is again in a must-win situation and people will start to take notice when they do it in the desert.
TAKING: N.Y. JETS -1.5
Jets 28, Arizona 24
DETROIT LIONS (7-1) at HOUSTON TEXANS (6-3)
LINE: Detroit by 3.5
Just when it looked like Nico Collins was about to return from a hamstring injury, the Texans still haven’t opened the practice window for their outstanding receiver. That doesn’t bode well for the Texans, who have averaged 19.3 points over their last three games, against the surging Lions, who have averaged 39.2 over their last five.
TAKING: DETROIT -3.5
Lions 30, Texans 20
MIAMI DOLPHINS (2-6) at LOS ANGELES RAMS (4-4)
LINE: L.A. Rams by 1.5
The Dolphins have lost their last three games by a total of 10 points, while the Rams have won their last three by a total of 21. As much as I like the Rams — they will make some noise in the playoffs if they get there — the Dolphins have to go on tear and they’ll be playing like their lives depended on it. Tua Tagovailoa will be under pressure by a Rams front that brings a lot of it, but he’ll get the ball to De’Von Achane with some quick hits over the middle that will test Los Angeles’ below-average linebackers.
TAKING: MIAMI +1.5
Dolphins 28, Rams 27
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