With Trump back in office, I believe his administration’s approach to the Middle East will be transformative, particularly with regard to the Palestinian issue and Israel’s security. The events of October 7 have heightened the stakes for Israel’s defence, and I anticipate Trump will put its security needs at the forefront. As a result, any discussions surrounding the Palestinians will likely be moulded to ensure Israel’s ability to protect itself against threats from Hamas, Hezbollah and other Iran-backed forces.
From my perspective, Trump’s strategy will diverge significantly from the Biden administration’s, which has struggled to mediate and enforce peace. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s repeated diplomatic efforts showed Joe Biden was unable to bring the region’s factions to the table, or secure the release of hostages taken by Hamas. It also couldn’t mitigate the influence of Iran, which, empowered by economic leniency, continues to support terror proxies that jeopardize peace.
Biden’s fluctuating stance on Israel’s defence needs, combined with his administration’s veiled threats to slow military aid, has emboldened Iran and lengthened the Israel-Hamas conflict. In contrast, I expect a new administration to act decisively to end this war, firmly supporting Israel’s right to self-defence. His administration will likely work to neutralize Iran’s ability to finance these proxies, implementing stringent sanctions and perhaps even fostering an atmosphere supportive of regime change in Iran to disrupt its power from within.
Strictly speaking about the Middle East, his accomplishments during his first term, including moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem, cutting off Iran’s financial support for terrorism, and fostering historic peace agreements under the Abraham Accords, demonstrate a clear commitment to stability in the region. These agreements marked a rare period of optimism, creating unexpected alliances between Israel, the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco. I believe Saudi Arabia will join the peace process, a milestone that would further solidify regional stability.
In the context of this vision, I encourage his administration to use a coalition-based approach involving Saudi Arabia and the Abraham Accord nations, to develop a roadmap for a Palestinian solution that doesn’t compromise Israeli security. Given the evolving political landscape, this approach seems viable, as countries like the UAE and Bahrain now have vested interests in maintaining stable relations with Israel. Their co-operation with the U.S. and Saudi Arabia could lay the groundwork for a plan that balances humanitarian needs with Israel’s security concerns, an approach that most Israelis would likely support.
To achieve sustainable peace, I agree with his previous administration’s “peace through strength” doctrine which sets a foundation for what’s to come. His recent remarks emphasizing his intent to “stop wars” reflect a desire to shift from merely sustaining conflicts to resolving them. Although his personality elicits divided opinions, the empirical results from his previous tenure speaks volumes. Trump is not without imperfections, but his Middle East policies brought tangible benefits, reducing hostilities and cultivating unprecedented diplomatic ties. I think his return to office could, again, curb Iranian influence, pressure its terror proxies, and foster regional co-operation.
For the Palestinians, a Trump-led Middle East presents both challenges and opportunities. Any new initiative will likely prioritize security considerations over political concessions, but Trump’s focus on peace could lead to a collaborative effort that improves conditions in Palestinian territories while preventing future escalations. In my view, a peace framework aligned with the Abraham Accords might offer a feasible path for a balanced resolution, with both economic incentives and security measures carefully integrated.
The 2024 election has indeed sent shockwaves across the Middle East. The Biden administration’s approach left room for Iran and its proxies to operate unchecked, an opening they may now fear is closing. In response, Iran might expedite its nuclear ambitions before Trump formally returns to the White House, or perhaps it will attempt to broker a ceasefire, recognizing that its regional activities will soon face heightened scrutiny. Revisiting the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), as was done in 2015, would be unwise. Instead, I advocate for strict sanctions and decisive measures to drain Iran of its terror financing capabilities. I believe regime change is the most effective long-term solution to neutralize Iran’s influence, liberating the Iranian people and ending their government’s destabilizing hold on the region.
My perspective is about enhancing a Middle East doctrine that clearly works and sows optimism. I understand, respect, and acknowledge many dissenting opinions about the incoming administration. But everything changed since October 7, and my hope is that a recalibration of American power in the Middle East, one that I believe prioritizes a strong Israel and deters adversaries through unambiguous strength, will bring security back to the Middle East.
Avi Abraham Benlolo, Founder and CEO, The Abraham Global Peace Initiative
National Post