“What he’s doing is what we did a few years ago. He’s doing a great job… and he’s shaking it up pretty good over there.”
Donald Trump said these words about Nigel Farage – the leader of Reform UK and perennial thorn in Labour and the Conservative’s side- at a rally in Pennsylvania last night.
But can Nigel Farage really emulate Donald Trump’s win in the next UK General Election, scheduled for the first half of 2029? Is he really doing what ‘we’ [Trump’s republicans] did in America?
Reform supporters point out that Donald Trump’s successful campaign was centred on the economy and immigration, two of the most powerful issues at the ballot box, and two issues Farage has campaigned heavily on in his political career.
There are other similarities between Farage/Reform and Trump/Republicans. Reform employs the mantra “we want our country back!”, similar rhetoric to Trump whose repeatedly voiced concerns the democrats stole America.
But perhaps most importantly, there is disharmony in both the US and UK with the direction n in which both countries are heading.
In America, this massively benefitted Donald Trump, as exit polls have shown.
Edison Research’s exit polling revealed three-fourths of voters surveyed said the country was going in a negative direction.
Of those voters, 61 per cent went for Trump. Of the voters who called themselves “angry,” 71 per cent backed the Republican.
Although a few years behind, Britain seems to be heading in the same direction as America, with voter apathy to the main parties and disharmony among the electorate rising.
An Ipsos poll in August revealed 52 per cent of Britons thought the country was heading in the wrong direction. An Opinium poll asking who would make the best Prime Minister out of Sunak and Starmer saw 43 per cent of respondents choose ‘neither’.
As has just been proved in America, disillusioned, unhappy voters appear to be heading towards the right and towards leaders like Donald Trump.
Donald Trump and Nigel Farage are good friends
Stuart Mitchell / GB News
In Britain, no one fits that billing more than Nigel Farage.
He will be looking to capitalise on unhappiness in the UK in the same way Trump has done.
A scan of much of the latest polling data shows the Reform leader still has some way to go, but his party is heading in the right direction.
Election Maps UK have Reform currently polling at 20 per cent nationwide, just short of the Conservatives on 24 per cent and double the Greens and Liberal Democrats, both more established political parties.
Farage, meanwhile, is also seen as more popular than Keir Starmer or Rishi Sunak.
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But with a First Past the Post voting system, they predict Reform will only win 13 seats if an election was held today, an increase of just eight from their current haul of five MPs.
Farage’s Reform may want to target the regional governments of Scotland and Wales first partly as their elections come first on May 2026, but mostly because they use proportional voting systems more favourable to Reform.
According to Professor Curtice, Nigel Farage’s party could win as many as a dozen seats if the Scottish elections were held tomorrow.
That’s thanks to the fact in August, just seven per cent of Labour voters were switching to Reform, but that figure has doubled to 14 per cent as Starmer’s unpopular leadership continues to drain Labour government support and Scotland.
In Wales, latest poll analysis has shown Reform set to become the third biggest party, outstripping the Conservatives.
Reform would increase their number of seats from zero to 17 seats in the Senedd if the election was held today, just nine seats behind Plaid Cymru- the second biggest party- and four more than the floundering Tories.
Experts say that with a general election four years away, it is these regional governments Farage may want to challenge first before ramping up efforts to establish his party in Westminster.