For the Toronto Blue Jays, it’s Vlad Guerrero Jr. or bust.
In a perfect world – which doesn’t necessarily fall into the game plan or the reality of Atkins and Shapiro – Guerrero would be extended early this off-season and the prime building block would be in place to assist in the rest of the considerable winter business that needs to be done.
From there, other free agents would see that the Jays are committed to contending now, a feeling not exactly shared around baseball, or within the Toronto clubhouse for that matter. Without Guerrero and Bo Bichette in the fold long-term, the process of attracting impact-free agents becomes that much more difficult. With the free agent period having arrived on Monday and GM meetings underway in San Antonio, the focus on Atkins and the company sharpens.
Potentially complicating matters is the fact that the dynamic between the Jays front office and Guerrero has been clouded with mixed signals, although the narrative could simply be posturing for both sides as a multi-year extension would represent the largest contract in franchise history.
It started last off-season when the Jays took Guerrero to arbitration, a potentially nasty bit of business that presumably could have easily been avoided. The Vlad camp fired its own volley by attending the hearing in person, a move Guerrero later admitted was done because he wanted to hear what the Jays had to say.
Whether that caused Jays reps to tone down their case or not, Guerrero won the case and was awarded an MLB record $19.9 million US for the 2024 season.
At his season-ended press conference, Shapiro had no interest in getting overly effusive over Guerrero, uncomfortably waffling when asked if his team’s former all-star first baseman was a generational talent.
Again, that could just be a negotiating tactic, but for a front office that has seen the discontent of the fan base heat up to cauldron levels, letting Guerrero get to free agency a year from now — and ultimately leave — could be the final straw.
For his part, Guerrero has done all the right things on the field (last year, anyway) and off of it. The just completed 2024 season was one of his best, as that renewed offensive talent was a rare bright light on the season. Guerrero banged out 30 home runs, hit to a career-high average of .323 while also hitting personal bests in hits (199) and doubles (44.)
Those numbers, by the way, put Guerrero in an elite class, numbers that if repeated would make him one of the most in-demand free agents next winter. He was second in the majors in average, third in hits, third in OPB and fourth in total bases. He also led the AL in hard-hit balls (287), and 25 more than the closest, a soon-to-be rich dude named Juan Soto.
Off of the field, Guerrero has seemingly embraced Canada and the Jays and regularly professes his love for the city.
“I would say the fans,” Guerrero said when asked on the final day of the season what he likes most about Toronto, a city that has embraced him. “My family, we love the fans here. They are very respectful with us. Here you can walk around. Yes, they recognize you but still they treat you with respect. I love the way they treat my family here. I have some teammates with kids the same age (as his) and they have a great relationship.”
He is the face of the franchise and has been so for a while. It started when he was free and clear the team’s top-rated prospect, extended when he made his big-league debut then exploded in 2021 when the four-time All-Star belted 48 home runs.
Further tangling the challenge of the front office is that in many ways Guerrero is in a position of power here. Various arbitration projections have him in line to make close to $30 million U.S. next season, an appetizer for the truly big money to follow. Another big season and folks around baseball will be talking about Guerrero the way they are talking about Soto right now.
So for the Jays brain trust, the pressure is on with the non-extending options not exactly attractive to the team in place and an increasingly antsy fan base. Among the non-extending alternatives? Build around Guerrero and Bichette for one more season and then let the big first baseman walk. In other words, a disaster.
However the Jays handle the early days of the now open free agency period it unfolds, the rest of the big names in the market and their agents will be paying close attention.