Gregg Birnbaum doesn’t know.
The longtime former political editor of the New York Post added no one else seems to have a definitive answer as to who will win the U.S. Presidential Election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris on Tuesday.
“My crystal ball is shattered,” Birnbaum told The Toronto Sun. “And that goes for the polls and pundits. I have no idea what’s going to happen.”
Even well-known poll pundit Nate Silver is calling the race for the White House a “pure toss-up”. Silver gave Trump a slight edge in his most recent forecast.
Silver puts Trump’s odds at 51.5% of capturing the Electoral College while Harris is at 48.1%.
He tweeted Sunday: “[New York Times] swing state polls good for Harris but not great. Morning Consult swing state polls good for Trump but not great.”
But Birnbaum — a friend and former colleague on The Post — is one of the most astute watchers in the political game having covered nine presidential elections. So when he throws up his hands, so should you.
More than half the ballots will have been cast by election day but does that favour Trump or Harris? He doesn’t know.
“It keeps growing every cycle but it’s not clear who — if anyone — it benefits. For every factor favouring Trump, there’s one that gives Harris equal weight that just keeps balancing out,” he said.
Going into the final 24 hours, the race is a dead heat with neither candidate breaking clear in any of the so-called swing states.
“Trump leads in a couple, Kamala leads in a few but the margin of error is so small that it’s anyone’s guess which way the wind will blow on election day,” Birnbaum said.
But with the offer of several cold beers on the table, Birnbaum offers this on the election.
“The number one issue is the economy, affordability, inflation and the cost of living, basically pocketbook issues,” he said. “And in those areas, Trump leads by 12 to 15 points … a lot better than Harris.
“These things tilt things in Trump’s favour.”
Birnbaum is calling this election Hillary Redux after the 2016 Trump-Clinton tilt. He believes Harris will win the popular vote but Trump will take the Electoral College — and the presidency.
“But I won’t bet you a glass of beer on any of this,” said Birnbaum, who has also worked for the New York Daily News, CNN and NBC. “I don’t fault either campaign for the stalemate I think the race goes beyond any campaign.
“The minutia is not important but … Harris made a huge mistake in her 60 Minutes interview when she was asked what she would have done differently from Joe Biden and she said, ‘I can’t really think of anything’. In that moment, she handcuffed herself to Biden.”
Birnbaum said it was a “clean-up in aisle four” moment and the Trump team pounced.
He added: “But we still don’t know. It’s very hard to get a reading on all this. I’m still hoping to get some early tea leaves but I doubt we’ll see them.”
Mostly, Birnbaum said he and 330 million other Americans are ready for the election to be decided.
“There has been violence, threats, assassination attempts. This country has been pushed to the limit. There’s a lot of anxiety and fear over this,” he said, adding that he’s anxious, snippy and not sleeping.
We’ll see what he has to say on Wednesday.