Whether it’s another frenetic week in the American presidential campaign, or Canada’s spiralling relationship with India and allegations over foreign interference, or Israel’s quintessential battle with Iran and its proxies, our collective attention is strained these days. Yet, even so, the illegal invasion of Ukraine continues unabated. It is a crisis that we can ill afford to ignore.
The current levels of bloodshed and destruction are shocking. In Ukraine, an estimated 80,000 troops have been killed and another 400,000 have been wounded, with millions displaced and on the move as winter approaches yet again. The Russian losses are even higher. Artillery and rocket barrages arrive daily and account for many of the casualties. Russia continuously launches barbaric attacks against civilians with the intent of destroying the country and its future economy.
This conflict has grave and wide-reaching implications for other countries, too: global food supply chains are strained. Countries in the global south, particularly in Africa, that relied on Ukraine’s massive agricultural exports face higher prices, greater scarcity and increased precarity.
Distracted or not, we must realize by now that, if left unchecked, Vladimir Putin is poised to secure his objectives on the battlefield, conquering a sovereign country as western resolve wanes out of some combination of short attention spans and misguided priorities. Putin’s irrational ambitions, hateful intentions and their catastrophic implications must warrant greater focus, as they clearly reach beyond Ukraine.
The grim prospect of Ukraine’s fall invites the question: who’s next? What other country will experience authoritarian brutalization simply because we lack the will to stand by our allies? Which other peoples will we allow Putin to consume in his project of imperial vanity? And how much more must the world suffer before we finally find our courage and stand up to Putin?
There is another option, one that stops Putin and prevents a cascade of violence. This option requires truly committing to a Ukrainian victory.
Most will have missed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s passionate address at the European Council meeting last week, during which he outlined a ‘victory plan’ to end the war. It lays out a serious, responsible path for securing Ukraine and its future as a key player in the Euro-Atlantic region. It focuses on putting Ukraine in the strongest military position possible to defend itself and re-establish its borders and sovereignty.
The assistance provided to Ukraine has been vital, but it is insufficient given the scale of Russia’s aggression and far too restricted in its use to be maximally effective. We should not be surprised that Ukraine is struggling when we prevent it from attacking sites in Russia that are launching attacks wantonly on Ukrainian soil. In hockey terms, we’re requiring the Ukrainians to stay in their own end and acting surprised that they aren’t scoring more.
For these reasons, Zelenskyy’s victory plan calls on the West to provide Ukraine with the weapons it needs while also lifting caveats on their use. This will save lives by putting Ukraine on a stronger footing to regain lost territory and negotiate a favourable, durable peace. “Give us the tools and we will finish the job,” the man of the century, then-British Prime Minister Winston Churchill told the Allies in 1941. It is time to do so again.
Though the backbone of the victory plan is predicated on creating a Ukrainian force strong enough to deter future Russian aggression, it also seeks to set up Ukraine to integrate better with its allies. The plan would enable Ukraine’s economic integration into Europe through European Union accession. And, it calls on NATO leaders to invite Ukraine to join the alliance and begin the membership action program immediately.
This is a follow-on from the rather muted reaction from the 32 NATO countries that met in Washington D.C. last July, when Ukraine sought greater assistance, as it did before and has done since. It appears most western allies have hit the snooze button again, ignoring the blaring alarm of desperate calls for help. This apathy is also mixed with misplaced fear in the West that putting Ukraine on a path toward NATO membership would be an “escalation.”
It is the height of absurdity to be paralyzed and self-deterred by a concern that confronting aggression might embolden the aggressor. Putin is already fully committed to this invasion of Ukraine, which dates back to 2014 when Russian soldiers first annexed Crimea. Since that time, he has gone all in with his maniacal attacks. At this stage he has few means to escalate conventionally. Ukraine’s offensive into the Kursk region of Russia, and Putin’s scattershot, always deadly response to it, has demonstrated clearly that the sabre-rattling of nuclear threats is nothing more than a ruse. No effort at deterrence will work.
Putin continues to use all nefarious means and desperate measures. He seeks partners among his BRICS+ members to wreak further death and destruction in Ukraine. Russia has reportedly granted Iran a license to domestically produce Su-35 and Su-30 fighter jets. Add to this the revelation, confirmed by South Korea and the United States, that North Korea has sent 3,000 troops to support the Russian invasion. Ukraine’s defence from Putin’s vengeful attack, aided and abetted by our chief adversaries, warrants renewed commitment and resolve.
Moreover, it is not an escalation to simply continue the natural progression that Ukraine has been following for years toward greater Westernization. China in particular is watching closely as it weighs its options on the invasion of Taiwan.
Supporting Ukrainian victory is in our own interests. I was proud to be part of a NATO countries working group made up of former ministers, academics and military leaders led by former NATO secretary-general Anders Fogh Rasmussen, which came to the same conclusions as Zelenskyy about the need to enable a Ukrainian victory.
For instance, our joint report found that a NATO invitation can provide a pathway to peace. It is an immediate priority, not a post-war consideration. An invitation to begin accession talks would not mean Ukraine joins overnight. However, it would send an unequivocal message to Putin that Ukraine will join the alliance and that continuing his brutal war will not prevent it.
We stand at a crossroads. Zelenskyy’s victory plan sets out how an economically and militarily strong Ukraine can contribute to a stable Europe. The alternative is an emboldened Putin and never-ending conflict on the doorstep of the EU and NATO. Now is the time for global leaders to recognize that reality and rally behind the victory plan. More than just the fate of Ukraine is hanging in the balance.
National Post
Peter MacKay served as minister of justice, attorney general and minister of foreign affairs in the Conservative government of former prime minister Stephen Harper.