New analysis of council election results since the General Election in July has revealed a resurgence in Tory electoral fortunes at Labour’s expense.
In the 105 council by-elections since the election, Labour have lost an aggregate of 20 seats whilst the Conservatives have gained 15.
Analysis of the aggregate vote share reveals Labour won 26 per cent of all votes cast, down 8.6 per cent.
Barring the SNP, vote shares were up for all other parties, with the biggest winner being Reform who were up 4.6 per cent. The other parties have seen little change with the Liberal Democrats remaining on 17 seats, the Greens and SNP gaining three, and Reform gaining one.
Aggregate Result of the 105 Council By-Elections (for 107 Seats) Since the 2024 General Election:
LAB: 37 (-20)
CON: 34 (+15)
LDM: 17 (=)
GRN: 6 (+3)
IND: 6 (-2)
SNP: 4 (+3)
PLC: 2 (=)
RFM: 1 (+1)https://t.co/vJWLS78kfx pic.twitter.com/kIY78pKb4Z— Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) October 25, 2024
After winning a thumping majority in July, Keir Starmer’s government has faced a rocky start to life.
Unpopular decisions like axing the winter fuel payment for pensioners, surrendering the Chagos Islands and the Sue Gray fiasco have seen Starmer’s approval rating plummet faster than any leader in modern times.
Last week a new poll found voters feel more positive about Reform UK than they do about Labour. Conducted by JL Partners on October 11 to 13, the poll found that out of 2,000 adults, 28 per cent of voters had a very or quite positive view of Nigel Farage’s party, while 27 per cent felt the same way about Labour.
The Reform UK leader also had a more popular rating than the current prime minister, holding a 27 per cent favourable rating compared to Sir Keir Starmer’s 24 per cent.
A YouGov poll this week asked: “On a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 means you would never consider voting for them, and 10 means you would definitely consider voting for them, how likely are you to consider voting for the following parties at the next election?”