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Considering how ruthless Manchester City is every season, any club with serious title ambitions rues every point they drop.
It’s one of the reasons any club that has legitimate title ambitions knows how massive the stakes are when they play each other. This Sunday, it’s one of the season’s most titanic tilts: Arsenal vs. Liverpool.
Last weekend it was Arsenal doing the ruing, on the heels of an early red card to centre back William Saliba, the Gunners lost the game and lost ground in the title race. It sits four points behind leaders Liverpool and two behind second-place City.
Assuming City makes short work of 19th-place Southampton in Manchester this weekend, both Liverpool and Arsenal know how valuable all three points are and neither will be happy with a draw.
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Arsenal is hosting Liverpool in this massive FUBO Game of the Week, but Saliba is out because of his red card and they’re sweating over the fitness of winger Bukayo Saka with captain Martin Odegaard still on the long-term injury list.
Liverpool is coming off a measured and professional 2-1 win over Chelsea last weekend and methodically has been grinding results all season, but this is the Reds’ biggest test by far. They’ve recorded seven wins, one loss and no draws, and only have given up three goals all season.
While it’s impossible to replace Alisson Becker in goal — one of the world’s best not just in how he keeps the ball out of the goal, but how he sparks the attack with his distribution — backup Caoimhín Kelleher isn’t such a big dropoff to present it as a major liability. In fact, Kelleher was truly world class in Liverpool’s 1-0 Champions League on Wednesday over RB Leipzig in Germany, making several stunning stops.
Often matches between the top teams can be cagey, slow and cautious affairs. But the prospect of Arsenal falling seven points off the pace and six off City surely will force manager Mikel Arteta into the margins of risk.
Arteta’s squad beat Shakhtar Donesk at home on Tuesday in Champions League and he was moaning about the demands on his players after an international break, but thinks the extra day’s rest will serve the gimpy Gunners well.
“We have now four days. Believe me, come Sunday we’ll be flying,” the Arsenal boss said.
With what’s at stake, you probably can expect Arsenal to be aggressive on Sunday, which could certainly leave the door open for Liverpool, who have mastered a series of devastating counter-attack goals this season.
It’s an interesting clash of styles as Liverpool has shown more of a likeness to Manchester City’s possession and passing game under new manager Arne Slot than previously under Jurgen Klopp. The Reds are second in passes completed with 4,400 behind Manchester City’s 5,100, while Arsenal have been more direct with 3,333 passes completed, just 13th in the Premier League.
Jockeying and jousting
While it seems like the season is in the thick of it, the interminable international breaks have stretched things out.
We’re still only eight games in with 30 left to play, so there’s a long time yet for fortunes to shift dramatically, but the elbowing for positions is incredibly tight at all tiers of the table. Liverpool beat Chelsea last week and the Blues plunged from fourth to sixth.
Newcastle was sitting in third a month ago, but two draws and two losses have seen it plummet to ninth, and now it faces Chelsea.
The Magpies fortunes are simple to fix, in theory. They plainly need to score goals. With a paltry eight goals scored in eight games, it’s just not good enough for a team with European ambitions. In contrast, Chelsea has scored 17.
Newcastle’s leading goalscorer, Harvey Barnes, is a midfielder and their top scoring forward, Anthony Gordon, has just two. They need more from their high-priced talent.
Bruno Guimaraes, who has enough talent to play at any club in the league, doesn’t have a goal and has just one assist and only one chance created despite playing in every game.
When teams who are trying to climb over each other like crabs in a bucket to get into the fight for the top four — teams like Chelsea, Newcastle, Tottenham or Brighton — they simply have to beat those around them.
With Spurs playing 18th-place Crystal Palace and Brighton playing last-place Wolves, these are the kind of weeks where grinding out wins against your opponents will make a massive difference.
For Newcastle, who have Champions League desires after getting a taste last year, a loss at Chelsea means it’ll slip five points back of the Blues and potentially eight points off the top four.
That’s not only a lot of points to make up despite the number of games left, but a lot of clubs to climb over.
English excellence
While there was a lot of skepticism over the new Champions League format, after three matchdays the top three clubs are all English.
Aston Villa and Liverpool are the only perfect teams with three wins, with Villa sitting top with one better goal difference. Manchester City is third with seven points.
This really is a magical season for Aston Villa. We’re not at Leicester levels of excitement yet, when the small club broke the Premier League monopoly to win the league title in 2016.
But Villa have so far negotiated the demands of Europe and the league with aplomb. The Villans sit nicely poised in fourth and host Bournemouth this weekend.
If Villa can lock it up defensively — it has only one clean sheet this season — and diversify their scoring with only got three goals from their midfielders and defence, then absolutely anything is possible for the Villans this season.
This weekend’s slate
Friday: Leicester v. Nottingham Forest.
Saturday: Aston Villa v. Bournemouth; Brentford v. Ipswich; Brighton v. Wolves; Manchester City v. Southampton; Everton v. Fulham.
Sunday: Chelsea v. Newcastle; Crystal Palace v. Tottenham; West Ham v. Manchester United; Arsenal v. Liverpool.