What drives the popularity of Hungary’s Viktor Orban is not his geopolitical game but his governance model.
On October 9, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban addressed the European Parliament, outlining the priorities for the Hungarian presidency of the European Union Council. His speech was met with applause from one section of the parliament and a lot of boos from the rest; some MEPs even walked out before he started speaking.
Orban has undoubtedly become a bete noire for Brussels’s political mainstream, not least because of his unapologetic embrace of Vladimir Putin’s Russia as well as China. Yet, over the years, he has also gathered a cult following in Eastern Europe and elsewhere.
The freshest example comes from North Macedonia. On September 26, the Hungarian leader received a hero’s welcome as he met Hristijan Mickoski, his Macedonian counterpart, in the historic town of Ohrid. He brought a valuable gift to the hosts at the joint session of the two countries’ cabinets: a loan worth 500 million euros ($539m), which had been agreed on over the summer.
Half of the money has been earmarked for local governments. Given that North Macedonia is to hold municipal elections in a year’s time, this is a welcome electoral boost for Mickoski’s VMRO-DPMNE. The right-wing, nationalist party won the national elections in May after a long hiatus. It hopes to hold on to power long-term with a helping hand from Orban.
The Hungarian prime minister used the trip to snipe at the EU, accusing it of hurting North Macedonia’s “national pride” in reaction to the news that the country had been “decoupled” from neighbouring Albania in the process of joining the bloc.
Orban also pointed out that the Western Balkan state should have long been a member of the EU, a hint at the political hurdles Skopje has faced for three decades due to disputes with its neighbours. He offered his services as a mediator with Bulgaria, which has replaced Greece as the main naysayer to Macedonian EU membership.
It was VMRO-DPMNE’s opposition to amendments to insert a reference to Bulgarians as one of the communities in the country into the Macedonian constitution – an EU precondition for proceeding with accession – that resulted in Albania leapfrogging North Macedonia. Now Orban, the EU’s longest-serving leader, claims he could right the wrong done to Skopje, using the weight of his experience and connections.
It is said that Russia’s aggression against Ukraine revived EU enlargement. But right now, Putin’s best friend in the Western club is, paradoxically, also the most vocal advocate for opening the gates of Europe for new countries to enter.
The likes of Mickoski, Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vucic and Bidzina Ivanishvili, the “puppet master” of Georgia’s political scene, see Orban not just as a friendly figure inside the EU but also as a conduit to former US president and current presidential hopeful Donald Trump.
The Republican candidate makes no secret of his fondness for the Hungarian leader. He name-checked Orban in last month’s TV debate with the Democrat presidential nominee Kamala Harris. “Let me just say about world leaders, Viktor Orban, one of the most respected men, they call him a strong man. He’s a tough person, smart prime minister of Hungary,” Trump quipped.
And Trump is not alone. Many Republicans are thrilled about Orban, a fellow warrior against “woke” elites and “uncontrolled” migration, and tend to overlook his ties to China and Russia. Orban has been a steady presence at the high-profile Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC). Its European edition has been held in Budapest. So many Eastern European politicians who are eager to have Trump on their side have Orban as a port of call.
Orban has positioned himself as an intermediary with China and Russia as well. Earlier this year, Chinese President Xi Jinping chose Hungary as one of the countries to visit during his European tour. And according to the investigative outlet VSquare, the Macedonian loan comes from Beijing, with Budapest being just a facilitator.
As Brussels seeks to “de-risk” from China, Chinese firms – including battery makers which play a critical role in electric vehicles (EV) manufacturing – have been investing heavily in what they see as a Central European backdoor to the EU market.
In July, Orban travelled to Moscow, claiming to be on a peace mission on behalf of the 27-strong bloc. The Russian visit elicited strong criticism from member states and led to boycotts of ministerial meetings held by the Hungarian presidency. Despite the backlash, Orban continues to tout a peace plan for Ukraine, which he maintains is a joint endeavour with China and Brazil.
The Hungarian prime minister’s international ambitions have not been confined to Eastern Europe. Last month, his government announced the deployment of a military mission to Chad, ostensibly with the goal of stemming undocumented migration from sub-Saharan Africa to Europe.
Orban may be boasting quite a few foreign policy feats, but his appeal has less to do with geopolitics and more to do with the governance model he personifies. Eastern Europeans of a conservative bent admire the fact that he was able to pick and choose from aspects of the post-1989 order according to his likes and dislikes.
Free trade, investment and generous subsidies from Brussels – yes. LGBTQ rights or solidarity in dealing with migration – no. Having a say in EU institutions and the ability to veto common decisions and policies – yes. Transparency, the rule of law and the institutional checks on executive power which Brussels is pushing for – no. “Liberalism” out, state capture with a populist strongman at the helm – definitely in.
Serbia, Georgia, North Macedonia, Republika Srpska in Bosnia and Herzegovina – Team Orban, in other words – have nothing against being part of the EU. They just want to be members that pick and choose, just like Orban’s Hungary.
Yet, at home, Orbanocracy appears to be past its prime. The rest of the EU has tightened the screws, cutting billions in financial aid to Hungary. Orban is facing a tough challenge by Peter Magyar, a former mayor, whose Respect and Freedom (Tisza) party is chipping away at Orban’s conservative electorate and now is running neck and neck in the opinion polls with the governing Fidesz. It is too early to predict what will happen in the next national elections in 2026, but Orban will surely face stiff competition.
For now, though, he appears as strong as ever on the international stage. Lake Ohrid would be happy to have him back, no doubt.