I don’t know what it’s like to be part of a political team — as former Maclean’s columnist Allan Fotheringham once said, any journalist who wants to become a politician is like a jockey who wants to become a horse.
But I have some insight into what many Liberal backbenchers were feeling about their leader, as they entered a high-stakes caucus meeting on Parliament Hill on Wednesday.
In June 2012, I took part in a charity rugby match on Parliament Hill with other reporters, MPs and Canadian international players. We were huddled for a half-time team talk when I noticed my teammate, Justin Trudeau, was off giving a TV interview at centre field.
I wondered then if he could ever play in a team, far less lead one. We were wearing the same jersey, but he was focused on himself — more particularly, his budding leadership ambitions.
That has been a recurring theme down the years as many of those who worked most closely with him — ministers like Jody Wilson-Raybould, Bill Morneau and Marc Garneau — left government commenting on his aloofness, his stubbornness and his conviction that he is always right.
But, while he could throw dissenting ministers overboard, he cannot detach himself from voters.
Ken McDonald, a Liberal backbencher from Newfoundland who was one of the first caucus members to call for a leadership review last January, told reporters before Wednesday’s meeting that Trudeau has to start listening to the people.
“If you are listening to the people, you may go up in the polls. If you’re doing something that people think is not what you should be doing, you’re going to go down in the polls. We have to get people back onside,” he said.
It’s not rocket science, it’s political science: the median voter theorem, which states no politician can ignore the direction in which the median voter is heading.
Trudeau’s supporters would call it conviction; his critics say it is arrogance. Either way, there is no doubt that he is offside with the prevailing mood in the country, which explains why he is trailing Pierre Poilievre in every region, in every age group, with both men and women, on every issue bar climate change.
Earlier in his mandate, Canadians were prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt when he broke his promise on electoral reform, and when he was twice found guilty of breaking the Conflict of Interest Act, first on his vacation to the Aga Khan’s Caribbean island and then in the SNC Lavalin case, when he was found guilty of using influence “tantamount to political direction” when it came to a decision by the attorney general.
Voters were prepared to overlook the blackface scandal, dancing the bhangra in India and paying former Al-Qaida fighter Omar Khadr $10 million in compensation.
But trust is a non-renewable commodity and the accumulation of missteps means that the benefit of the doubt has been lost and mistakes are now magnified.
The most obvious way for Trudeau to win back some of his audience would be to repeal, or at least pause, the consumer carbon tax, an issue on which McDonald voted alongside the Conservatives last year. It may be the most effective, market-oriented way to reduce emissions but it is political kryptonite.
McDonald told reporters that there are around 20 of his colleagues who have signed the fabled letter that calls on Trudeau to step down.
A grassroots petition called “Code Red” has also started circulating that says the Liberal party needs to address “the current threats to its very survival … including growing hostility to our leader” because of the failure of the current policy platform to attract and inspire support from Canadians, particularly young Canadians.
The petition calls on the caucus and the party’s national executive to conduct secret ballots on Trudeau’s leadership.
But there were no signs of white smoke rising after the caucus meeting. As Garneau pointed out in his new book, A Most Extraordinary Ride, the prime minister likes a fight and doesn’t like giving up.
Nate Erskine Smith, a Liberal MP from Toronto, indicated post-meeting that Trudeau will remain as prime minister and it is time for the Liberals to turn their knives outward, not inward.
In question period Wednesday, Poilievre said 24 Liberal MPs had called time on Trudeau’s tenure in the meeting, with some heading off to the bathroom to text journalists on their progress. Reports suggest the MPs have given Trudeau until next Monday to step down, though it’s not clear what actions they will take if he refuses.
The prime minister appeared unperturbed when he rose in the House to receive a standing ovation from his caucus.
“Thanks for that rousing show of confidence,” he said. “We are totally united…”
The rest of his answer was lost to antiquity, amid the laughter in the chamber.
Trudeau made clear that he intends to “double down” on the policy platform that many of his MPs and much of his voting base believe is not working.
The prime minister pointed to Wednesday’s half-point interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada as evidence that the government’s “responsible economic plan is working.” He blamed Poilievre for having a “broken-ist” vision of Canada that is not aligned with reality.
The charge brought some levity to proceedings. “Broken-ist isn’t a word,” said Poilievre. “He’s even broken the English language.”
Trudeau’s business-as-usual response is unlikely to satisfy the dissident Liberal MPs.
McDonald said voting with the opposition parties in a non-confidence vote is “an option,” although not one he’d commit to right now. He acknowledged that he, and others, risk being booted from caucus if they continue to make public their concerns.
There are some genuine Trudeau loyalists in caucus who share the prime minister’s belief that only he is capable of beating Poilievre; that, in his own words, he is “obliged” to stick around for that purpose.
But there are many others, who have so far kept their own counsel in the interests of party unity, but who have tired of the prime minister’s self-congratulatory brand of political image-making. Their support in a secret ballot is not assured, which suggests that the pressure to hold a caucus vote will continue and Wednesday’s meeting may just have been the beginning of the end for a prime minister who remains convinced that it’s all about him.
Twitter.com/IvisonJ
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