The sharks are circling the tank.
Yesterday, former BC Premier Christy Clark made headlines for eyeing the Liberal leadership, when it eventually opens up. Clark is taking French lessons, and according to sources who spoke to the National Post, several Chretien and Martin-era Liberal organizers are supporting her potential candidacy. Clark tempered the speculation on X, writing that “The Prime Minister has earned the right to make any decision about his leadership on his own — the position of leader is not open.” For now.
Then there’s former Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney. He told MP-turned-podcaster Nathan Erskine Smith that he is preparing to run for elected office, without offering further details. When asked whether he saw value in serving as an MP before seeking the top job, Carney said, “I’m in the trenches,” and then added, “I mean, you can’t map these things out. Of course, there’s value in that.” Um, ok.
And cabinet ministers Francois-Philippe Champagne and Melanie Joly are reportedly “having conversations” with MPs, while still publicly professing their loyalty to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. “People are talking to people, that’s normal,” Champagne said. “I don’t know who you’re talking to, but now the focus is on regaining momentum and making sure we can deliver for Canadians.” Sure sir, whatever you say.
The reality is, they all smell blood in the water. Everyone does, it seems, except the PM. The question is why. Ego? Or something else?
While it’s tempting to take door number one, there could be other things. The U.S. election, for one. Trudeau could be secretly praying for Donald Trump to win. Trudeau could then argue that Canada needs a counterweight to MAGA mania, in the form of his highly liberal soul. That could perhaps shave a few points off the Conservatives’ lead in the polls, but with twenty points’ advance the Tories would still get a majority.
Or Trudeau could have other secrets to share. He tried the “spies among us” routine to sow doubt about the Conservatives last week. It does not appear to have worked. Unless Trudeau has a video of Pierre Poilievre professing his undying love for Indian Prime Minister Narender Modi, there is little to add to that conversation.
And even if there were more bombs to drop, they would not necessarily reignite Canadians’ romance with Trudeau. The spark is gone. The ick has set in. MP Sean Casey, one of apparently 30 MPs who have signed a missive asking Trudeau to quit, summed it up: “Voting is an emotional exercise. It’s not based on logic… [T]here’s been baggage accumulated. People have tuned him out.”
In short, nothing Trudeau can say can make voters come back, and the sooner he realizes it, the sooner he can exit with whatever dignity he has left — and let the country get back to business.
For the longer this drags on, the more damaging it is for the nation. The business of Parliament has ground to a halt. The opposition parties are off on their own missions: the Conservatives are demanding the government produce documents related to its green fund, while the Bloc Quebecois is determined to push through its seniors’ pension top-up by Oct. 28 or bring down the government.
These are not the priorities of the average Canadian, who is concerned about putting food on the table and paying the rent or mortgage. They are also not Canada’s larger priorities: national security, the threat of increased American protectionism, and angst over immigration and our fraying social fabric.
Instead, they are pure political theatre, designed to weaken the Liberals. But they could also push Trudeau to prorogue Parliament and return with a throne speech next year, buying a few months before an election inevitably ensues. And buying the time to hold a quick leadership race and put a fresh face in the window, if he decides to throw in the towel.
So will tomorrow’s shark tank, er, caucus meeting, convince Trudeau to quit? When asked about unrest in Liberal ranks, Thunder Bay MP Marcus Powlowski, a former ER doctor, quipped that “If the blood’s not squirting on the ceiling, it’s not an emergency.” Perhaps. But for the country, it is fast becoming one.
National Post