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Trick-or-treaters, prepare yourselves. Instead of mini chocolate bars, the dreaded candy corn, Molasses Kisses, Rockets and Tootsie Rolls might dominate treat bags this Halloween. Cocoa prices have reached an all-time high, and confectionery companies are turning to gummies, licorice and other candies due to soaring costs.
But the news isn’t all bad — especially for those handing out candy with a one-for-you, one-for-me philosophy. The chewy, tart candies producers are leaning into are in line with the tastes of millennials and Gen Z-ers, The Washington Post reports.
Chocolate is still No. 1 in the sweets category, but according to market research firm Circana, demand for candy is growing faster among teenagers and adults up until their mid-40s. Part of the reason is price — candy is cheaper than chocolate — but there’s also more variety.
In the United States, mitigating cocoa supply issues means diversified offerings. Candy companies are shipping fewer Halloween chocolates and more spooky takes on top sellers, such as Nerds Candy Corn, Skittles Shriekers, Sour Patch Kids Apple Harvest and Twizzlers Ghosts. “One of the key things to stay relevant with consumers is to innovate,” Idoia Hidalgo, a client solutions executive at Clarkston Consulting, told The Washington Post.
Consumers are still buying chocolate, but high prices are curbing consumption. Though still cheaper than chocolate, the cost of gummies and other candies is also up. “Chocolate candy, there’s just not as many items per retailer on (the) shelf,” Dan Sadler, principal of client insights focusing on confectionery at Circana, told Reuters. “We’re seeing double-digit increases in non-chocolate items.”
Most of the world’s cocoa supply is produced in the Ivory Coast and Ghana, where last year’s crop was hit with “massive rains,” which led to pests and disease. This year, the weather has been drier than usual due to El Niño, and dust storms have blocked the trees from vital light, hindering their growth. Experts expect production to be 14 per cent lower overall (22.4 per cent lower in the Ivory Coast) and forecast that prices will stay high until at least September 2025, Food Dive reports.
“Warehouse stocks (of cocoa) are at 50-year lows. They’ve been declining for the last 15 months. The lower production has the market in turmoil, and as a result, we’ve seen futures prices just skyrocket over the last two years because chocolate demand, for cocoa flavours and confectionery, is still going up year-over-year,” David Branch, sector manager at the Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute, told Food Dive. “It’s gotten pretty dire.”
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