The Canadiens have shown steady improvement over the past three seasons, going from 55 points in the 2021-22 season to 68 points in 2022-23 to 76 points last season.
Marty St. Louis can see the latest version of his team contending for a playoff spot and contending is the key word here. Montreal won’t be in the playoffs next spring, but we should expect a 90-point season and meaningful games in April.
A pipe dream? Perhaps. But here are some factors that could make that dream come true.
It starts with the goaltending: The Canadiens carried three goaltenders last season and the challenge for St. Louis was to keep everyone busy. As a result, no one played more than two consecutive games and it was impossible to establish a rhythm.
Juggling goaltenders also makes it difficult to ride the hot hand, but that was a moot point last season because the only goaltender to win consecutive starts was Jake Allen. He had wins on Oct. 21 and 23 but Cayden Primeau got the call on Oct. 24 in New Jersey.
After Wednesday’s 1-0 win over Toronto, St. Louis said the situation will be less challenging with two goaltenders. Sam Montembeault, who set an NHL record for the most saves in a season-opening shutout with 48, is No. 1 and should make a minimum of 50 starts with Primeau as his backup.
Montembeault and Primeau combined for a 24-24-13 record last season which translates to a .500 clip and an 81-point season. That’s the baseline and we expect the duo to improve with the more coherent work schedule.
There is also every reason to believe that working with only two goaltenders will make it easier for the still young defence corps. Veteran Mike Matheson said communication between the goalie and his defence is an essential element of the game.
Size doesn’t matter: Speaking of the young defence corps, it’s even younger with the addition of 20-year-old Lane Hutson.
He set records with the U.S. National Development Team and was an all-American at Boston University. He’s skilled. Creative offensively, but there are questions whether a player who stands a shade under 5-foot-10 and weighs 162 pounds can survive in the NHL.
The sample is small, but Hutson is fitting in as a top-four defenceman. At one point in Wednesday’s opener, he was matched against William Nylander in front of the Montreal net and he held his own. Against the Bruins on Thursday, he was on the ice for 22:46 — only Mike Matheson had more ice time — and he wasn’t on the ice for any of the Bruins’ six goals. He has that ability to know where the puck is going to be, getting there first and positioning himself properly in the defensive zone.
But he is at his most dangerous when he has the puck. His superior vision allows him to find passing and shooting lanes. This aspect of his game was on display Thursday in Boston, when he set up the first two Montreal goals and was on the ice for three of Montreal’s four goals. He quarterbacked the second power-play unit, which produced the first of two goals by Brendan Gallagher.
Hutson’s lack of size was one of the reasons why he was available to the Canadiens late in the second round (No. 62 overall) at the 2022 NHL entry draft. It was considered a bit of a gamble for Montreal, but the team might have been following a trend. Three of the last four Norris Trophy winners — Quinn Hughes, Cale Makar and Adam Fox — are all under 6-feet tall.
Christmas wishes: The Canadiens principal off-season acquisition was Patrik Laine, but the veteran forward suffered a knee injury in a pre-season game.
Knee injuries can be tricky and fans have to hope that Laine made the right decision when he elected not to have surgery and the prognosis that he will be sidelined for two to three months is correct.
If he returns in two months, the Canadiens will have reason to be thankful at U.S. Thanksgiving, while a return in three months would be a nice Christmas gift.
Getting Laine back would be akin to adding a rental at the trade deadline. The difference is that you won’t have to wait until March and there’s no price to pay.
The Canadiens were involved in 43 one-goal games last season and lost 26 of them. Having a proven scorer like Laine on the second line might tilt a few of those cliffhangers in Montreal’s favour.