What would have to happen for the Calgary Flames to exceed expectations and actually wind up in a playoff spot this year?
It’s not something experts are predicting. The Flames themselves believe they’re better than they’re being given credit for, and no honest assessment of the team’s roster could credibly say they’re one of the league’s very worst teams.
But a lot of things would have to go right for the Flames to find themselves competing in the post-season next spring.
But what if?
Let’s take a look at what would have to happen for the Flames to exceed external expectations this year:
1. Vladar and Wolf thrive in a competitive environment
Goaltending’s the most important position for any team, and the Flames are going to find out what they have this season when they roll out an expected platoon of Dustin Wolf and Dan Vladar.
Teams around the NHL are increasingly leaning towards load management for their goalies in the regular season, so there’s nothing wrong with not having a guy like the traded-away Jacob Markstrom who commands the crease nearly every single night.
However the split between Vladar and Wolf plays out, both guys are likely going to be seeing more NHL action than they ever have before. Vladar has been a backup for all four seasons that he’s been in the NHL and has never played more than 27 games. Wolf played one game in 2022-23 and 17 last season.
Both guys want to be the Flames starter, and they could be competing for the job all year if head coach Ryan Huska decides to ride the hot hand.
If that internal competition brings out the best in Wolf and Vladar, that can only be a good thing for the Flames and hopefully they can steal a few games.
2. Bahl and Miromanov prove they are true top-four defencemen
It looks like the plan on defence is for Kevin Bahl to be partnered with Rasmus Andersson and Daniil Miromanov to play with MacKenzie Weegar.
That means they’ll be playing top-four minutes and will have a tonne of responsibility on the blueline.
Neither guy is necessarily proven in a top-four role. Miromanov played with Weegar last season, but there was always a sense that we never saw the best version of the Russian as he was coming off knee surgery that had kept him out for all but four games for the Vegas Golden Knights before the Flames acquired him in the deal that sent Noah Hanifin to the Nevada desert.
Bahl, meanwhile, played all 82 games for the New Jersey Devils last year, but it’s worth noting that he averaged 17:24 of ice time per game. That’s more consistent with a guy like Nikita Zadorov, who was playing 18:24 in a third-pairing role for the Flames early last year before being traded. Andersson, who he’ll be partnered with this year, played 23:50 per game. That much ice time would be a big step up for Bahl.
What every player wants is more opportunity, and both Bahl and Miromanov are going to get exactly that this year. If they thrive, it sets the Flames blueline up nicely.
3. The young guns take another step
The Flames are building to the future, but there are already a couple guys around the roster who figure to be a big part of the team when they’re trying to contend, too.
Connor Zary’s emergence as an everyday NHLer might have been the biggest story in Calgary hockey last season, as the 23-year-old scored 14 goals and added 20 assists in 63 games.
Martin Pospisil, meanwhile, scored eight times and added 16 assists while leading the Flames in hits in 63 games.
Both guys have big roles to play this year, with Zary on a line with Mikael Backlund and Blake Coleman, and Pospisil at centre between Jonathan Huberdeau and Anthony Mantha.
If they can avoid sophomore slumps and take forward steps in their development, it gives the Flames forward depth that many experts don’t believe they have.
If the likes of Matt Coronato and Sam Honzek emerge this season, too, that’s all the better because the Flames are going to need …
4. … Scoring from everywhere
This is especially true because leading goal-scorer Yegor Sharangovich is out week-to-week after suffering a lower-body injury in the Flames’ final pre-season game.
The Flames have some very good players on their roster; the question is whether they have the high-end offensive talent that can take over a game. It’s hard to answer that question with an emphatic ‘yes.’
The top line, which features Nazem Kadri — who recorded 75 points last year — and a potential 40-goal scorer in Andrei Kuzmenko, as well as Sharangovich when he’s back, should be legitimately exciting.
There are other guys who can score, to be sure. Coleman got 30 last year and Weegar potted an impressive 20.
But realistically, it’s going to need to be scoring by committee this year if the Flames are going to surprise people. They’ll need contributions up and down the lineup every night.
5. Huberdeau finds chemistry with his linemates
The Flames need Huberdeau to be more productive.
This isn’t all that complicated. He’s their highest-paid player at US$10.5 million per year and has finished with 55 and 52 points in his two seasons in Calgary.
The team brought in Anthony Mantha this year and the hope is that his finishing can work next to a playmaker like Huberdeau, and maybe Pospisil’s speed and aggression in the middle can create some space.
The 31-year-old will be getting lots of power-play time, too, and with the Flames boasting the seventh-worst PP in the league last year (17.9 per cent) there’s no question that’s an area that could use some improving.
One way or another, the Flames need Huberdeau to be putting up more than 50-something points if they’re going to push for a playoff spot.