The Edmonton Oilers have the pre-season behind them and are staring at Game 1 of the 2024-25 NHL regular season. Winnipeg is in town on Wednesday.
So, with a fresh marathon set to begin let us look at the very biggest factors at play in the Edmonton Oilers season, as they attempt to return to the Stanley Cups Finals…and this time finish the job.
It is the one and only topic in this start-of-the-season edition of…
9 Things
9. Wild Cards. Most successful teams end up having a player of two who comes out of relative nowhere to fill a significant role. Who might that be for the Oilers? Does Noah Philp win the 4C battle and play 75 NHL games? Can Raphael Lavoie turn into a 12-15 goal winger? Does Matt Savoie come up from Bakersfield mid-season and become a Top 9 guy?
8. Off-Season Bets. It is a fool’s game to try and predict Stanley Cup winner based on pre-season. But so far, the only signing that looks like an automatic win is Viktor Arvidsson. But who else among the veteran newcomers has? Certainly not Josh Brown or Jeff Skinner. Ty Emberson remains a bit of a question mark. Vasily Podkolzin had a solid enough camp, but as a fourth liner. Hmmm.
7. Will Your Best Be Better Than Their Best? The Oilers are blessed to have both Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl on the same roster. The challenge will be to stay ahead of the curve. As the best, Connor & Leon are constantly the focus of the other guys. More man hours will be invested in stopping them than anybody else on the team. Both are in their prime and have proven to-date that they can maintain that standing. But the Oilers will not win it all if they somehow can’t.
6. Coaching. Let’s be honest. This Oilers club has chewed through a few good head coaches. Todd McLellan. Ken Hitchcock. Dave Tippett. Jay Woodcroft. At one point or another they all had a measure of success (Hitch the least of which). But none of them were able to maintain that success. Is Kris Knoblauch, he of 69 games of NHL head coaching experience, the guy who can finally capture and (key to this point) hold their attention? At some point…the problem is “no longer the coach.”
5. The Third Line. Playing at their best, deep in the Stanley Cup playoffs, the trio of Adam Henrique, Mattias Janmark and Connor Brown was a godsend. You could put them on the ice in any situation and be comfortable that they could handle the moment. It was truly something Edmonton had not had in decades. But if you really think back with proper context, that was an awfully small sample. Can they repeat that over 82+ games? I believe it is a solid bet. But we are about to find out for sure.
4. 4D. The Edmonton Oilers are not starting the season with a legitimate, proven 4D. They have a bunch of “fives” that will attempt to fill that slot by committee. Having Ty Emberson grow into that role seems to be Plan #1. The back-up plan would seem to be Troy Stecher, who had a good camp. But if those two guys cannot get the job done, it would then fall to Josh Brown or (if he is signed) Travis Dermott…players who at this point in their careers are probably “sevens.” Otherwise, it will be “deadline time” to fill a significant hole.
3. Darnell Nurse. A return to full health and a corresponding return to form by Nurse will be critical if the Oilers are to challenge for the cup. In the paragraph above, we recounted the calculated risks that Oilers management is taking at the 4D spot. The success of failure of any of those guys will be heavily dependent on their #3…Darnell Nurse defending and producing the way he did in 2022-23. Nurse played through way more last season than most people realized. So, if he is back to 100% then what would a successful 2024-25 look like for big number 25? 10 goals, 40 points, +20, and a menacing physical presence in his own end.
2. Good Health. The Oilers were among the healthiest clubs in the NHL last year in terms of games lost due to injury. According to NHL Injury Viz, Edmonton’s CHIP (Cap Hit of Injured Player) was lowest in the league at just over $2m. The Oilers lost just fifty-six-man games among their forwards. And astonishingly, they only lost four (4!!) man games on the blueline. That is either great training, great luck, or a healthy helping of both. What are the odds of that happening again? Especially with a roster that will be the oldest of either team on the ice on most nights. I believe the Oilers are deeper than ever up front, so I have greater confidence there. But I am not so sure we can same the same about the blueline, or in goal. Speaking of which…
1. Goaltending. There is a heavy burden about to be placed on the shoulders of Stuart Skinner. For the first time in his NHL career Skinner is entering the season the unquestioned, unchallenged #1. There is no Jack Campbell with a decent NHL resume as a starter to either split the #1 duties or even to take the “forty” side of a 60-40 split. Calvin Pickard is a good pro who played a meaningful role in rescuing Edmonton’s season last year. They are damn lucky to have him. But Edmonton should be bloody thrilled if they get 25 starts and another .909 SV% from Pickard again. That means Stu Skinner will need to start 55-60 games. In 2023-24, only three goalies started more times than Skinner did: Juuse Saros (64), Alexandar Georgiev (62) and Connor Hellebuyck (60).
In other words, Stuart Skinner will need to perform like one of the best goaltenders in the entire NHL for the Edmonton Oilers to return to the Cup finals and this time…win that Game 7.
No pressure, right?
Now on Threads @kleavins. Also, find me on Twitter @KurtLeavins, Instagram at LeavinsOnHockey, and Mastodon at [email protected]. This article is not AI generated.
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