There are a large number of Reform UK voters who could ditch the party for the Tories if the next Conservative leader adopts an anti-Labour strategy ahead of the next General Election, a top pollster has suggested.
More in Common’s Luke Tryl revealed the populist party attracts two types of voter, with one more likely to switch to back the Conservative Party in 2029.
Speaking at a fringe event in Birmingham on Tuesday, Tryl said: “Our analysis of Reform voters is there are basically two types of Reform voters.
“There’s one type, which is the majority of them, who are a basically just disillusioned populists. They think the status quo isn’t working. They want democracy to work better and they can be reached, I think, by either Labour or the Conservatives.
The four remaining candidates in the 2024 Tory leadership race
PA
“There’s another group who are much more akin to the radical right that you see in Europe. Very online, very engaged and I spent a lot of the last Parliament warning Labour about their very progressive online flank and I think there’s a danger for the Conservatives if they try to chase the radical right.
“It is the first group of Reform voters that the Conservatives can most easily pick off.”
Tryl also highlighted how median Tory voters differ from median Reform UK voters on Donald Trump and the West’s response to the war in Ukraine.
But Reform UK voters are as likely to support legalising cannabis as Liberal Democrat supporters, with the figure soaring far higher than the proportion among Tory voters.
However, Tryl was keen to stress that overall Reform UK voters are less enthusiastic about voting Tory than either Labour or Liberal Democrat switchers.
Reform UK voters are half as likely to express a desire to vote Conservative compared to the seven per cent of 2019 Tories who voted Liberal Democrat and 12 per cent who switched to Labour.
Luke Tryl
GB News
Tryl was able to identify a strategy for the next Tory leader to win over Reform UK voters.
He argued that the Tories should look to win back disgruntled Conservatives followed by Labour and Liberal Democrat switchers before turning their attention to Reform UK supporters.
“The reason we’ve done the phasing in this way is because actually one of the best way to get Reform UK voters might be to show that the election is competitive again,” Tryl said.
“Once you can show that you’ve got Labour switchers back, you’ve got Conservatives re-engaged, you can say to Reform [voters] it is now a straight choice, do you want to give Keir Starmer a second term or do you want a Conservative Government?”
All four leadership contenders – Robert Jenrick, Kemi Badenoch, James Cleverly and Tom Tugendhat – have attempted to extend an olive branch to Reform UK voters without expressing a desire for an arrangement with Farage.
Nigel FarageGETTYWhen asked by GB News at More in Common’s fringe event how the Tories can win back Reform UK supporters, ex-Chief Secretary to the Treasury Laura Trott revealed a blue-print for the next Tory leader to follow.
Trott, who is backing Badenoch’s leadership bid, said: “There are people who are just fed up with all of us and we need to show that we have the ability to reconnect, to be sensible, to speak to the concerns of everyday voters in a way that they understand.
“Show that we care about their lives, about their kids, about their jobs, about their car, about getting a doctor’s appointment, about their kids going to a decent school, about growing up in an area that they understand.
“That is absolutely vital and I think if we do that correctly then we will win back Reform voters without having to focus on it.”