The lines are from Covers.com and the home teams are in CAPs.
Tampa Bay +1.5 over ATLANTA
If there’s one thing we’ve learned this season, it’s that Falcons games are going to be exciting right down to the end.
MINNESOTA -2.5 over New York Jets in London
The Vikings are one of the biggest surprise teams of the season and their two-point win last week was flattering to a Packers team that benefitted from a few lucky plays. Minnesota raced out to a 28-point lead at Lambeau Field before halftime, which is something that not many teams have done. Jordan Addison’s return from injury has added another weapon to the Vikes offence and Sam Darnold finally seems to have found his way. On the other side, Aaron Rodgers and the Jets offence has looked way off, with the exception coming against the terrible Patriots, and the defence, which was a major strength last year, has been average at best. The Vikes rank first overall in DVOA with the top-ranked defence in the league, which should make for a long flight home from London for Gang Green and some big questions about coach Robert Saleh.
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WASHINGTON -3.5 over Cleveland
It feels like we’re not going to get too many more chances to bet against Deshaun Watson, so might as well use them.
Baltimore -2.5 over CINCINNATI
The Bengals finally got into the win column last week, but shouldn’t get ahead of themselves with the Ravens looking like early title contenders. Lamar Jackson has been showing his MVP form and should be able to shred the Bengals soft run defence along with Derrick Henry.
Buffalo -1 over HOUSTON
Both teams can look like contenders at times, but both also have quite glaring flaws. If Josh Allen truly wants to prove that he’s worthy of the early MVP chatter, he can’t lose a second game in a row against a contender to the AFC crown.
JACKSONVILLE -3 over Indianapolis
Is it weird that we’d probably back the Colts if we knew for sure it would be Joe Flacco starting? Anthony Richardson has been throwing in practice, but he might be better off being an understudy to the veteran and recover from his hip injury for a week or two.
CHICAGO -3.5 over Carolina
The Panthers seem to have found some life with Andy Dalton at the helm, but the Bears have been outstanding at home dating back to last year with a seven-game winning streak. Line also doesn’t make much sense with the Rams getting the same amount of points last week.
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NEW ENGLAND -1.5 over Miami
It’s pretty rough, but well deserved that the Dolphins are underdogs against the Pats. Miami’s offence without Tua Tagovailoa is just awful and the defence can’t stop a runny nose. New England is ailing as well, but at least have a big rest advantage and home field.
SAN FRANCISCO -7 over Arizona
The 49ers have absolutely dominated this division rival over the past two seasons, winning all four games by a combined score of 156-68. San Francisco scored at least 35 points in each of those wins and should be able to rack it up again vs. Arizona’s porous defence.
DENVER -2.5 over Las Vegas
It feels a bit painful to back the Broncos as a favourite, but Denver’s defence has proven it’s legit and the offence has its moments. The Raiders are dealing with all of the Davante Adams drama and missing their top offensive weapon isn’t going to help Gardiner Minshew here.
Green Bay -3.5 over L.A. RAMS
The Rams just simply don’t have the depth to compete against the top teams and the Packers are among that group in the NFC. Jordan Love should be better off this week after finding his footing in the second half against the Vikings in his return from injury.
SEATTLE -6.5 over New York Giants
On one hand, big underdogs have been covering like crazy this season. But, on the other, the Giants’ offensive savior, Malik Nabers, is still in concussion protocol and we’d bet he misses this game.
PITTSBURGH -2.5 over Dallas
For years now, the Cowboys have been notorious for playing poorly against teams with winning records and Dallas is just 1-5 as an underdog since the start of last season. What’s making matters much worse for the Cowboys here is the fact that both Demarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons, their two best pass rushers, got hurt last week. Despite losing to the Colts last week, Justin Fields has been quite good for the Steelers and had his first 300-yard outing. He only threw for that amount once in 40 games as a Bear. Dallas’ running game has been awful so far this season and the Steelers’ defence has among the league’s best. Last week, the Cowboys had trouble against Daniel Jones and the lowly Giants and weren’t even able to cover the 5.5-point line.
New Orleans +5.5 over KANSAS CITY
Another week, another big injury to the Chiefs’ offence. With Rashee Rice suffering a knee injury last week and Isiah Pacheco the week before. Travis Kelce broke out of his slump with a decent game, but he’ll once again be in trouble with the focus squarely being on him in the passing game.
Last week: 12-4
This season: 29-34-1