Council tax for South Gloucestershire residents is expected to rise by the maximum 4.99 per cent from April. It comes as finance chiefs have warned that the local authority faces a £16million budget shortfall by 2028/29, even if all the cutbacks and money-making schemes previously agreed, such as introducing car parking charges and doubling the cost of garden waste collections, are implemented in full.

And the council’s reserves, which have been used in previous years to help balance the books, have dwindled to such a low level that there is not enough left to plug the gap beyond 2026/27 and still leave enough cash in the pot to withstand unexpected shocks, such as another pandemic or a major incident. South Gloucestershire Council leader Cllr Maggie Tyrrell (Lib Dem, Thornbury) admitted the financial pressures meant they would have to do “some unpopular things”, including cutting some services, introducing new fees and raising the cost of those they already charge for.

The Lib Dem/Labour cabinet will receive an update on the precarious financial position on Monday, October 7. A report to the meeting said: “The council will need to source around £9million of new savings for 2026/27 rising to c. £16million by 2028/29 based on current projections of pay and price inflation.”

It said the figures were based on all the savings and the reductions in some services that were already agreed from previous budgets being achieved. These include shorter staffed library opening hours and dimming street lights at night.

But the report said about £5million of the £40million of savings approved in the 2024/25 budget were “potentially at risk of non-delivery”, which would increase the shortfalls and require even more cuts. It said: “The current forecast 2026/27 budget could be balanced with the deployment of one-off reserves allocated last year to support the council’s budget.

“However, this leaves insufficient one-off reserves to support 2027/28 and beyond. Every effort should be made to spread reserve usage over 2026/27 and 2027/28 in the final budget.

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“Having the right level of reserves is fundamental to robust and responsible medium-term financial management. Where councils hold very low reserves there may be little resilience to financial shocks and sustained financial challenges.”

The report said there were £19million of reserves that could be used to balance the revenue budget but that this was only £3million more than the minimum five per cent of the net budget total that the council’s policy said it must hold back. It said: “The approach to the identification and delivery of further savings will be developed over the coming months.

“Opportunities to bring forward existing savings and income options will support the retention of one-off reserves.” The report said next year’s budget assumed a 4.99 per cent hike in council tax, including two per cent for social care.

It said: “No investment in services is included within these forecasts at this stage in the budget process. For any investment to be made, equivalent additional savings, income or realignments would need to be identified.

“The expected level of savings over the next four years will continue to have a significant impact on the council’s workforce which will need to be increasingly agile as new ways of working emerge and role requirements change in response to service delivery change. Maintaining a positive employee relations climate during this period of change will support delivery of organisational change.

The council’s ability to offer a competitive employment package to new and existing staff remains a critical element of our recruitment and retention strategies.” Council leader Cllr Maggie Tyrrell (Lib Dem, Thornbury) said: “As with councils up and down the country, the rapidly increasing demand for our services, including the most expensive support we need to give to the most vulnerable of our residents, compounded by the year-on-year cuts to central government funding for more than a decade, have put unsustainable pressure on our finances.

“We will soon be able to share a draft budget with local people, where we’ll set out the steps we think we’ll need to take to balance the books for the year ahead. We will be open and honest, but it has been and will continue to be a battle to keep doing everything people need us to and might want us to.

“There are no ‘easy’ savings to be made, and we will need to talk about difficult choices that might be painful to hear for local people, for our staff and for the partners we work with. We know we’ll need to raise council tax, for example.

“We’ll need to look at charging for things that might once have been free, and to look at increasing the cost of some of the services we already charge for. And we’ll need to make cuts to some services.

“None of these are decisions we want to take, but we do have to face up to this challenge if we are to maintain our ongoing financial viability. In November, we’ll set out the detail of the challenges and the choices we face and we want to have a meaningful conversation and consultation process about it.

“We want residents and our partners to get a clear understanding of the reality and the extent of the financial challenges and the measures that may be needed to balance the books. The financial pressures mean we will have to do some unpopular things, and we will have less freedom to prioritise spending as we as councillors, and our residents, might like us to, but where there are genuine opportunities for people to influence decision-making, we want them to tell us what they think.

“We hope that by working together with residents, we will be able to find ways to balance the books and minimise the impact of any cuts so that we can continue to support and protect those who need our help the most.” The cabinet report said there were still many unknown factors outside of the council’s control, including the Chancellor’s Autumn Statement on October 30 and the implications of the Local Government Finance Settlement, which is how much each council gets from government, in January or February.

Once the local authority’s draft budget has been finalised and approved in November it will go out to public consultation for 10 weeks. Following feedback and any changes, cabinet will approve it on February 3 ahead of full council to make the final decision on February 19.

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