If you’re inclined to give Mark Shapiro the benefit of the doubt, perhaps it was simply just pre-negotiation posturing.
Maybe the Blue Jays president’s lukewarm assessment of Vlad Guerrero Jr.’s ascendency in the game was made purely to cement an early stand in low-ball negotiations.
And then there’s the possibility of what would have been unthinkable five years ago (when he broke into the big leagues), three years ago (when he hit 48 home runs and set the league on fire) and five days ago (when he was chasing 200 hits for the first time in his career).
Yes, maybe the Blue Jays are just fine with saying so long to Vlad.
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Among the head-scratchers at Wednesday’s season-ending press conference was Shapiro’s indifferent response to a question of whether Guerrero was a generational player.
While admittedly that’s a subjective platitude, Shapiro had no interest in heaping effusive praise upon the 25-year-old (the team’s lone offensive bright spot of 2024, you’re well aware) and instead instead of easy superlatives, Shapiro served up vague approval void of any semblance of excitement.
“Generational player? Like what’s your definition of that?” Shapiro asked, bordering on argumentative. “He’s one of the better offensive players in the game today. I’m not sure. He certainly has the opportunity to be a generational player and how young he is. But to make that decree at 26-years-old (which Guerrero will be next March), he has the opportunity to be a generational player.
“He’s a great talent and emerging into a great player.”
At best, it was a curious response from the Blue Jays biggest boss about a fan favourite.
At worst, it was spoken like a man who doesn’t want to part with hundreds of millions of dollars of Rogers cash to secure him. Or, perhaps, it’s the voice of a team CEO who believes those hundreds of millions can be better spent elsewhere.
It may be prudent to walk back criticism of Shapiro and general manager Ross Atkins on this because, in fairness, they have not given even a hint of their approach to a long-term Guerrero extension whenever the subject is raised.
And all of the big-money signings the team has made — Hyun-Jin Ryu, George Springer and Kevin Gausman, most notably — were kept well under wraps until they were consummated.
But whatever the motivation, it did not feel like an optimistic stance for a man who heads a last-place team seemingly desperate to keep its lone superstar player around for longer than the remaining 12 months on his contract.
At the very least, Shapiro’s response guaranteed that Guerrero will drive the off-season narrative for a Jays team with such an uncertain future.
The first baseman (forget about moving him to third, Atkins confirmed on Wednesday) is eligible for arbitration again and, if it gets that far, no doubt will attend the hearing (to make the front-office squirm, no doubt) as he did last February. After a season in which he banged out 30 home runs and 103 RBI, Guerrero is headed for another raise.
According to projections compiled by MLB Trade Rumours, Guerrero leads all arbitration-eligible players at a predicted settlement of $29.6 million for next season. After winning his arbitration case this past February, Guerrero was paid $19.9 million after the team had offered $18.05 million.
Of course, any arbitration tension could be avoided if the Jays and Guerrero reach a long-term deal before that — and what a tone would that set.
If Guerrero is on board long term, suddenly stability replaces much of the saltiness from what unfolded the previous six months. As manager John Schneider said during the final week of the ill-fated season, Guerrero easily could emerge as the face of the franchise.
“He is at the point performance-wise and where he is personality-wise that he can definitely do that with how he’s recognized around the game, how he’s recognized around this city,” Schneider said. “I absolutely think he’s talented enough and kind of ready to do that.”
Interestingly, Schneider relayed that the organization has had discussions of re-upping Guerrero while noting that a long-term deal could go a long way in attracting free agents.
“That would definitely help,” Schneider said. “I’m sure it holds a little more weight if you have someone like that.”
Of course, Guerrero’s future is further clouded by that of his long-time teammate Bo Bichette. That pair has long been viewed as the superstar duo to take the franchise to higher ground. But can both be signed long term?
“Yes we can,” Atkins said, before walking that assertion back, as is his way. “We’ve had incredible support (from ownership) and that is certainly a possibility. That doesn’t make it happen, just because it’s a possibility. It’s extremely difficult to sign one player to an extension and signing two is difficult.”
Not nearly as difficult as watching Guerrero walk way after next season and become a generational player somewhere else.