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With just two regular-season games remaining, Toronto FC sits on the MLS playoff bubble with no margin of error. Even two wins may not be enough to return to the post-season for the first time since 2020.
“It’s doable,” English midfielder Matty Longstaff said. “We definitely have a good chance. We’ve just got to concentrate on (Wednesday) and make sure we win.”
Toronto (11-17-4, 37 points) hosts the playoff-bound New York Red Bulls (10-7-14, 44 points) on Wednesday before entertaining league-leading Inter Miami on Saturday (19-4-8, 65 points).
TFC currently sits eighth in the Eastern Conference, which offers a door into the post-season.
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The eighth- and ninth-place teams meet in a playoff wild-card game, with the winner moving on to face the first seed — likely Miami — in the best-of-three first round.
Toronto has teams nipping at its heels, however.
Tied on points with Philadelphia and CF Montreal (both 9-12-10), Toronto is ahead in the standings due to more wins (the first tiebreaker). Atlanta and D.C. United are a further three points behind.
All four chasing teams have a game in hand on Toronto.
Coach John Herdman prefers to see the TFC glass half-full while focusing on the controllables.
“Two great opportunities at home,” he said after training Tuesday. “That’s what we’ve been saying to the players. Put (out) everything here. Don’t leak any energy on anything else other than what you (can) influence.”
“Then it’s about the intensity and effort we’re willing to show up with,” he added. “I keep saying the teams we’re playing against, these matches mean more to us than it does them.”
Toronto’s last trip to the post-season was a short one, upset 1-0 by expansion Nashville at the first hurdle.
TFC’s regular-season record since is a dismal 30-73-31. But 11 of those wins have come this season under Herdman, who took over the team last October.
Whatever happens this week, it’s a step forward for a club that went 4-20-10 in finishing last in the East in 2023.
While Toronto can’t be eliminated from playoff contention Wednesday, it will be in a world of trouble if it loses. Even if it then beats Miami, it would have to hope that Philadelphia and Montreal lose two of their three remaining games.
Miami can claim the Supporters’ Shield, which goes to the team with the best regular-season record, by winning at Columbus on Wednesday. Toronto will no doubt be rooting for a mid-week Miami victory in the hope that coach Tata Martino, with first place already secured, might leave Lionel Messi and other stars behind for the trip to Toronto.
TFC will then have to watch the season play out from the sidelines. By luck of the draw, it is the lone side to have a bye Decision Day, the regular-season finale on Oct. 19.
A season that kicked off with great promise — TFC had a 3-1-1 start and did not concede until the fourth game of the season — has turned into a streaky, unpredictable campaign.
Unable to deliver consistently in recent weeks, Toronto has gone 4-4-1 in league play since emerging from a nine-game, seven-week winless run (0-7-2). TFC is winless in its last three league outings (0-2-1), outscored 5-1.
Offence has been a major issue, with Toronto averaging a meagre 1.22 goals a game. TFC ranks 23rd in goals, 25th in shots, 23rd in shots on target and 27th in corner kicks.
With eight goals apiece, Federico Bernardeschi and Prince Owusu are tied for the team lead. Lorenzo Insigne is next with four goals, a poor return for the league’s second-highest salary at US$15.4 million.
Bernardeschi missed a penalty in Saturday’s 1-1 draw at Chicago and has not scored in his last 16 games in all competitions dating back to late June. The Italian had 13 goal contributions (eight goals, five assists) in his previous nine league appearances.
Insigne has three goals in his last 18 appearances dating back to mid-June and has been blanked in his last five outings. While he has suffered through a list of health issues — he is questionable Wednesday with a calf injury — the 33-year-old Italian has seemed out of sorts for much of the season.
On Saturday, after coming on in the 88th minute, he inexplicably passed on taking a close-range shot with only the Chicago goalkeeper to beat. Instead, he sent a pass into traffic that snuffed out the threat. Then, in stoppage time with the degree of difficulty ratcheted up, he hammered a spectacular long-distance free kick off the goalpost.
Another chapter in the conundrum that is Insigne. And with the former Napoli star misfiring, opponents have been able to shut down Bernardeschi.
Coming off a 5-1 loss to rival New York City FC, the Red Bulls are winless in six (0-3-3) and have just one win in their last 11 (1-3-7) since a 3-0 victory over Toronto on June 22. Despite the lopsided NYCFC defeat, other results meant the Red Bulls clinched a playoff berth, becoming the first club in league history to make the post-season in 15 straight seasons.
The New Yorkers are unbeaten in their last 10 meetings with Toronto (7-0-3) — not counting a July shootout loss in Leagues Cup play that followed a scoreless draw in regulation.
TFC has failed to score in the last five meetings and has not beaten the Red Bulls since July 2019, a 3-1 decision at BMO Field.