Just how profligate is Justin Trudeau willing to be in his determination to eke out a few more months in office? Is the sky the limit, or does there exist a red line beyond which even this prime minister — who in nine years of power has seldom shown a reluctance to run up debt — won’t go?
Yves-François Blanchet, leader of the federal separatist party, doesn’t really know, but he figures it’s worth finding out. The end of the New Democrats’ formal willingness to prop up the minority Liberals changed the official dynamic in Ottawa, leaving Blanchet’s Bloc Québécois and Jagmeet Singh’s NDP two plausible reasons for resisting the opportunity to force an election.
One is the unique chance the moment offers to squeeze concessions out of the government. The other is the fear an election would produce a Conservative majority, bringing a swift end to that moment. No one can be sure just how long the Liberals will survive, adding to the pressure to make deals now. If the atmosphere in Ottawa in coming weeks takes on the aura of some medieval bazaar, with everyone crowding around the goat dealer, demanding cheaper goats and free goat milk, blame it on the wonders of minority government.
Blanchet makes no bones about what he’s up to. The end of the Liberal-NDP agreement handed the Bloc some unaccustomed leverage and he’s keen to use it while it lasts. “We have a law which is now at the very centre of the survival of this government. This is what we call power,” he told reporters gleefully, referring to a proposed Bloc bill that would add an estimated $16 billion — or more, given how rarely governments get their calculations right — to the mountain of borrowed money the Trudeau government has ladled out. All the prime minister has to do is ensure the bill gets shepherded through the final stages to become law, and Blanchet will provide the votes to keep him in power a while longer.
“I ask for things and if I don’t get it, they will fall. And that’s the end to it,” he said.
The bill promises a 10 per cent raise to Canadian seniors aged 65 to 74 via the Old Age Security program. Those 75 and older got the increase in 2022. There’d be few restrictions on collecting for all but the most prosperous recipients, meaning a lot of people who don’t really need the money would get a pleasant boost at yet another cost to younger Canadians already struggling with the expensive legacy of baby boomers’ self-help habits.
Blanchet could care less. Quebec seniors would benefit from their share of the extra outlay, and for the Bloc, Quebec is all that matters. It also fits snuggly with the Liberals’ modus operandi, given their history of pouring out benefits at whatever the cost, and the fact they started the ball on this one by introducing the 2022 increase all on their own. A senior is a senior is a senior, right? Is 74 much different from 75?
Problem is, things are a bit sticky, budget-wise. Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland has been making efforts to persuade voters Liberals do in fact grasp basic economic fundamentals, such as the need for successful countries to generate wealth in addition to redistributing it, and the fact that ever-rising interest costs are no healthier for countries than they are for individuals. Parliamentary Budget Officer Yves Giroux estimated the price of the Bloc proposal at $16 billion over five years, plus $3.5 billion a year after that, for a government already running a deficit of $47 billion, heading towards $60 billion by 2028. Adding another subsidy to seniors would also look a bit odd at a time official Liberal doctrine is that it’s all about the middle class and helping young people afford a home. But coherence can be a luxury when you’re 18-20 points down in the polls.
Freeland’s stature has been undercut by Trudeau’s summer-long romancing of former Bank of Canada governor and international wunderadvisor Mark Carney, but she still officially has the job and will presumably be the one to deliver the traditional fall update. Should her boss cave to the separatists and order up another splashout of cash, her attempts to project prudence and responsibility will look less than convincing.
But that’s where Trudeau’s troops, those who haven’t left to find more secure jobs or rediscover families, find themselves. The prime minister bought two years of support from the NDP in return for dental care and pharmacare, two pricey programs that reach only a limited set of Canadians and would balloon in cost if extended to a wider audience. Collaborating with the left was something Liberals found they could stomach, but doing a deal with the separatists at a time a reckoning is at best 12 months away has a different scent to it.
Blanchet is testing Trudeau’s character as much as his willingness to bargain. An agreement handing the Bloc a victory could only strengthen their standing in Quebec at the expense of federalism. Sometimes politicians have to hold their nose for the good of the country. In this case the smell of selling favours to the separatists would be hard to stomach.
National Post