Picture this. It’s 2010. You’ve decided to acquire a new vehicle. The Great Recession is waning, interest rates are low, and automakers are very keen to sell vehicles after a lengthy stretch of disappointing quarters.
You walk into, let’s say, your local Mazda dealer. And you – yes, you – are nine times more likely to choose Mazda’s compact car as opposed to Mazda’s small SUV. In fact, even though light truck volume overtakes passenger car sales in 2010 – never to look back – compact cars still rule the Canadian automotive landscape.
Better than one out of every five vehicles sold in Canada in 2010 was a compact car such as the Mazda3, Honda Civic, or Toyota Corolla.
Revert back to the here and now, and picture this. Interest rates are uncomfortably high, most automakers still haven’t saturated Canada’s dealer lots, and price points for everyday cars are now exorbitant. You’ve decided to acquire a new vehicle, so you walk into, let’s say, your local Mazda dealer. Some 14 years removed from the last purchase, you’re now three times more likely to choose one of Mazda’s small SUVs as opposed to Mazda’s compact car.
Better than one out of every five vehicles sold in the first-half of 2024 was a small SUV such as the Mazda CX-5, Honda CR-V, or Toyota RAV4. Compact car market share, meanwhile, fell by two-thirds between 2010 and 2024.
The downward trajectory of Canada’s passenger car market isn’t new, nor is it necessarily news. More noteworthy is the fact that passenger cars haven’t yet found the bottom of the barrel; Canadians haven’t entirely finished the collective move toward SUVs/crossovers. From 52% of the market in 2009, passenger car market share fell in 14 of the following 15 years, plunging below 40% for the first time in 2015, below 30% for the first time in 2018, and below 20% for the first time in 2021. Just under 15% of the new vehicles sold in the first-half of 2024 were cars.
Nevertheless, there are automakers that continue to sell sedans, hatchbacks, and even some coupes in reasonably healthy numbers. Canada’s five largest sellers of cars actually bring in over half of the country’s passenger car sales, and some of them actually surged in the first-half of 2024.
5. Volkswagen: 9,540, up 92%
Improved availability of the Jetta and Volkswagen’s exclusively performance-oriented Golf lineup (GTI and R only) doesn’t exactly mean Volkswagen is selling cars like it’s 2010, but the German brand has nearly doubled last year’s pace. Volkswagen was later to the SUV party than most, but the brand now generates three-quarters of its Canadian sales with the Atlas, Tiguan, Taos, and electric ID.4. Jetta volume, meanwhile, is tracking toward its first five-digit sales year since 2021.
4. Nissan: 10,096, up 11%
Nissan’s gains in the Canadian passenger car marketplace stem almost entirely from the brand’s two most affordable nameplates: Versa and Sentra. It should come as no surprise that Canadians, at least some of them, still find cars priced in the low-to-mid $20,000s attractive during an era in which average new vehicle price is more than double that. Yet most automakers have completely abandoned this category. The Versa’s subcompact segment is nearly vacant, making way for Versa volume to jump 107% to 1,904 units in 2024’s first-half.
3. Hyundai: 11,839, down 2%
Hyundai’s marginal 2% passenger car decline in early 2024 makes it an exception amongst these high-volume competitors, but that decrease actually places Hyundai right in line with the market as a whole. The electric Ioniq 6 allowed Hyundai’s car lineup to maintain equilibrium in early 2024 – Elantra volume fell 8% to 9,641 units; the Sonata tumbled 21% to only 760 units.
2. Honda: 16,103, up 10%
Thanks to a 15% increase from Canada’s current best-selling car (the Civic lost its long-time crown in both 2022 and 2023) and despite a 20% decrease in Accord sales, Honda’s car lineup actually grew faster than its light truck lineup in the first-half of 2024. (Albeit by only six-tenths of a percentage point.) The Civic is tracking toward 32,000 sales this year. That would be enough for a three-year high, but still down 27% from 2021 and down 56% from 2008.
1. Toyota: 24,939, up 27%
Though brands as varied as Buick and Lincoln have completely exited the Canadian passenger car market, and though many more have only the narrowest of footholds, one auto brand still markets an extensive passenger car lineup. In 2024’s first-half, Toyota reported increased sales of the 86 (up 114%), Camry (up 37%), and Prius (up 101%). Toyota’s Crown and Supra sales declined, albeit at very low-volume levels. The big fish in Toyota’s car-shaped pond is the Corolla, which posted an 8% increase. SUVs do the real damage at Toyota – the brand sold 67,908 utility vehicles between January and June.
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