ERIE, Pa. — Political poohbahs are critically aware that every road to the White House insists you go through Pennsylvania.
There are no bypasses. No detours.
This was even before U.S. President Joe Biden bowed out, before the conventions, and before the rise of Vice President Kamala Harris. In a squeaker of a race, Harris and Donald Trump both know there is no inauguration without Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes.
The Keystone State is one of six or seven swing states that will determine who sits in the Oval Office for the next four years — and who pilots America’s course through increasingly hazardous international waters.
The Toronto Sun went on the road to Jamestown, N.Y., Erie, Pa., Youngstown, Ohio and Monroe, Mich. to take the mood of the Rust Belt where the election will be won or lost.
— In Pennsylvania, Harris leads Trump by 1.2%.
— In Ohio, Trump has an eye-popping 10-point lead.
— In Michigan, Harris leads Trump by 2.4%.
Former New York Post political editor Gregg Birnbaum, who now teaches journalism in Florida, told the Sun that even before Biden bowed out he had been spending a lot of time in Pennsylvania.
“They know how important the state is, Kamala Harris has been there eight or nine times,” Birnbaum said. “Pennsylvania is a crucial, crucial state.”
The longtime political observer said as America has become increasingly polarized between red and blue states, the number of states in play has dropped dramatically.
“Two election cycles ago there were a dozen swing or purple states, now there are seven. The next election there will probably be less,” he noted.
The swing states in the Rust Belt are Pennsylvania, Ohio (more red than ever), Michigan, and Wisconsin.
With just over a month to go, Harris holds a one-point lead in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and is winning across much of the north while Trump is in the driver’s seat in the Sun Belt.
“I don’t put a lot of stock in polls and right now it’s a dead tie. They are dead even,” Birnbaum said. “In the end, there are only six or seven states that are going to matter. There is no way to get a good read ahead of Nov. 5.”
Birnbaum added that there are other factors at play, including what he calls the “secret Trump vote.” These voters won’t tell — or lie — to pollsters about their voting intentions. He added that the Democratic vote is “underestimated” all the time.
And like the secret Trump vote, Birnbaum believes there could also be an anti-Harris vote within Democratic circles.
“Even political operatives are not trusting what they see in the polls. They want a five- to seven-point lead,” he said, adding the numbers are “frozen” and nothing is breaking the race open.
In the end, the U.S. presidential election will likely be settled by a small percentage of voters in a handful of states.
The Democrats are vulnerable on migration, crime and the economy. Harris “doesn’t have a lot to fall back on” on that score, Birnbaum said.
As for the GOP, Trump himself is the Achilles heel.
And even as the Rust Belt’s fortunes have waned over the past four decades with heavy industry shuttered, a stagnant economy, jobs shipped overseas, and profound population loss, it remains an electoral college powerhouse.
“This has turned out to be one of the most fascinating elections in American history. You have Biden out, Harris in, a Democratic rejuvenation. And you have Trump, the assassination attempts,” Birnbaum said.
“It will all come down to the Rust Belt.”
TOMORROW: Jamestown, NY
@HunterTOSun