Closing primary schools in Bristol could be “unavoidable” as almost 1,000 spare places in reception this September were left empty. Over the past decade the number of babies born in Britain each year has dropped, with devastating impacts on school budgets.
Two primaries recently closed due to shrinking admission numbers, and Bristol City Council bosses are warning others could soon be closed too. The education department is working with schools to manage the reducing numbers of new pupils, and said closures “should be avoided”.
This academic year, there were 970 surplus reception places across the city’s primary schools, and some parts of the city are more affected than others. Headteachers were updated about the work on reducing admissions, during a schools forum meeting on Tuesday, September 24.
A schools forum report said: “Permanent closure of schools and the disposal of their assets should be avoided, but in some cases this decision may be unavoidable. For communities, the closure of a local school can be extremely damaging and have a long-lasting impact.
“Children are forced to travel further from home, increasing the number of car journeys and contributing to poorer air quality. It can also damage a child’s sense of belonging to their local community and negatively impact their life chances.”
An upcoming public consultation will explore the views of parents on reducing the number of children that certain schools can admit. The sheer scale of surplus places means a third of schools could lose a whole class of children.
Simon Eakins, finance director at the Cathedral Schools Trust, said: “We’ve got the best part of 1,000 spare places. That’s 30-something forms of entry that effectively need to go. You’re talking about, in broad terms, one in three of our schools losing a form of entry, which is a pretty sobering thought.”
Britain’s birth rate started rising in 2003 and peaked in 2012, before falling again. The increased number of babies left many councils across the country struggling a few years later to provide enough school places — and after the bulge then dealing with the impacts of a falling birth rate. In Bristol, 18 per cent fewer children started reception this September compared to in 2016.
A third of the 105 primaries in Bristol already have just one class starting reception in September, and these are more at risk of closing. Just under half of primaries have two classes starting, while 15 per cent have three classes, and three schools have four classes.
Falling admission numbers reduce how much money schools receive, leaving some struggling to balance the books. Two primary schools have closed in Bristol since 2021, St Pius X in Withywood and St Barnabas in Montpelier, while two further schools were merged.
Melanie Bunce, school business manager at Ashley Down Schools Federation, said: “I was at a business manager network meeting this morning, where numerous business managers were saying ‘we really need to know what’s happening about place planning, we’re all worried about our falling rolls and the impact on our budgets’.”
Some surplus places have to be kept, so not all of the 970 would be removed from the system, and not all at one time either. But as the bulge moves through the secondary system, high schools will face similar problems over the next few years too.
House-building and parental preference are other factors considered by the education department at the council, which could mean some schools see less of a drop, or even an increase in their reception intake. Another issue being closely watched is the impact of new VAT charges hitting private schools, although this is thought to only affect a few parts of the city.
Empty classrooms could be repurposed as nurseries or for pupils with special educational needs and disabilities; or in high schools in a few years, for sixth form courses. Council bosses said they were monitoring the situation and supporting schools with shrinking pupil numbers.
Hannah Woodhouse, executive director of children and education, said: “The opportunity to achieve consensus and some strategic conclusions to this is really on us all. We want to protect small schools and make the right decisions. We don’t want it to be a death by a thousand cuts.
“This is a good opportunity to come together and achieve a sensible position, and potentially free up some space to build resource bases. The impact will be significant, but if we do it well, we could really minimise that.”