Democrats are becoming increasingly concerned hat pollsters are underestimating Donald Trump’s voter support.
While most polls show moderate but consistent leads for Kamala Harris, some supporters are unnerved by the small margin of her advantage in three northern battlegrounds , Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
These three states are deemed essential if Harris is to win the Presidential election.
Meanwhile, Trump leads among likely voters in the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, a New York Times/Siena College poll showed earlier this week.
Harris and Trump will go head to head at the polls in November
Reuters
While some polls have shown the vice-president with leads of between four and six points in Pennsylvania, generally judged the most important swing state, others show Trump trailing by smaller deficits.
According to several different recent polls, narrower gaps separate the two in Michigan and Wisconsin, where Harris’s lead is just one or two per cent.
Echoing the fears among Democrats is the knowledge that Trump greatly out-performed predictions in these three stares when he narrowly won them over Hillary Clinton. In 2020, he was pipped by Joe Biden by far smaller margins than forecast.
According to the NYT poll, Trump bested his Democratic rival 50 per cent to 45 per cent in Arizona last week, 49 per cent to 45 per cent in Georgia and 49 per cent to 47 per cent in North Carolina.
LATEST IN THE RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE 2024
Trump beat Clinton narrowly in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin in 2016
Reuters
One of the other key states Harris will be hoping to win back is Florida. One of the state’s Democrat delegates Jennifer Jenkins, told GB News she believes the Vice President can flip the state blue for the first time since 2012.
Speaking about what she thinks will happen on election night, she said: “I argue it’s always a close fight in the way that we do the electoral college in the United States, but I think it will be decisively clear on election night.
“I think it’s going to be clear not just from winning states, but I think states that are traditionally very red, we’re going to see those margins significantly shrink together, which is going to give us a really good predictor of what those battleground states are going to do the days after the election.
“We should definitely be paying attention to Pennsylvania to North Carolina, to Arizona, to Nevada, to Wisconsin, I think, all over the map, different areas, different regions. People are responding to the Harris/Walz ticket for different reasons and different purposes.”
Jennifer Jenkins spoke to GB News
GB News America
When asked why people are responding positively to Harris, Jenkins said: “I think she has integrity. I think that is the most important thing in the world for an elected official to have, and unfortunately, I’ve learned it’s rare.
“I argue that if someone has integrity, who’s representing you and you don’t necessarily agree with what they believe are their values, at least, you know where they’re coming from, and you can understand where they’re going, what their intent is.
“When you have somebody who doesn’t actually have conviction, doesn’t really have a moral compass or a real agenda that they really are truly passionate about, I think that that’s the most confusing and dangerous thing we can have in our society.
“That’s what I see about Trump. I don’t actually believe Trump believes 90 per cent of the things that he says he’s going to do if he became President. I don’t think he really cares. I think he says those things because he thinks it’s going to gain him power.”
A sign supporting Harris stands in front of a sign welcoming Donald Trump for a campaign rally in Indiana, Pennsylvania
Reuters
The New York Times/Siena poll indicated that the Vice President’s “bounce” from this month’s debate against Trump, which most surveys indicated she won, was the smallest enjoyed by any presidential debate-winning candidate in the 21st century.
New York Times’ chief polling analyst Nate Cohn said: “On average, Kamala Harris is faring about one point better across 34 polls that measured the race before and after the debate.
“George W Bush, John Kerry, Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden and, yes, Donald J Trump earlier this year, all peaked with gains of at least two points after their debates.”