This in from NHL insider Frank Seravalli of the Daily Faceoff, a tweet late Thursday evening: “Hockey world waits for #Oilers to render decisions Tuesday on the St. Louis Blues offer sheets to Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway. Recent trades mean everything is still on the table cap-wise, but I wouldn’t be surprised if both Broberg and Holloway become Blues tomorrow. We’ll see.”
Early in the day, Puckpedia tweeted, “If the Oilers don’t match either Broberg/Holloway, they could start year with $946K Projected Cap Space for 21 healthy + Kane IR. They would accrue cap space. Or, could submit roster including Savoie that’s $59K under cap, put Kane on LTIR, & be able to exceed cap by $5.066M while Kane is out.”
My take
1. I would not be surprised either if this happens either. Seravalli is one of the two or three top insiders in the NHL. I put a huge amount of weight in his reporting. He was on Oilers Now earlier this evening, and sounded far more open to the idea that Broberg might stay in Edmonton with Holloway moving out. Now he’s sending a different message, one that leans heavily to both players leaving Edmonton. I put a lot of weight in this hint. But, as Servalli says, we shall see.
2. The Oilers need major cap space to match the offer sheets for both Broberg and Holloway. Most importantly, injured Oilers forward Evander Kane would have to go on Long Term Injured Reserve. This has been reported by insiders like Bob Stauffer of the Oilers and TSN’s Ryan Rishaug as likely to happen, but it’s not been reported as a certainty. If it does not happen, the Oilers options are greatly constrained.
3. There’s also the possibility that Broberg and Holloway could end up in St. Louis by way of trade, with St. Louis and Edmonton working out a bigger deal around the players. As time ticks along, that seems less likely.
4. If Edmonton were to lose Broberg and Holloway it would be a major blow, with responsibility for the loss falling on Oilers management, both the old regime of Ken Holland that failed to sign the two players last winter, as well as the new management of Jeff Jackson that went aggressively over the cap this summer.
5. The Oilers are OK at forward to deal with the loss of Broberg, but losing both Ceci and Broberg in a two day span, as well as Vincent Desharnais to Vancouver earlier this summer, represents a major blow to the Oilers on defence. Evan Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm form one of the top defensive pairings in the NHL right now, but Darnell Nurse’s game fell apart in the second half of last season. Brett Kulak has been great in the playoffs, but has failed to step up as a Top 4 d-man in the regular season. After that, without Broberg, there will be a ton of question marks, including newcomer Ty Emberson, veteran journeymen Troy Stecher and Josh Brown and long-time AHLers Phil Kemp, Cam Dineen, Connor Carrick and Ben Gleason.
6. However much losing Broberg and Holloway for the poor return of a second and a third round draft pick might sting, and however lacking in depth Edmonton’s defence might now be, if the cap space isn’t there, it’s not there.
Jackson was hailed this summer for breaking the mold in Edmonton by aggressively signing so many free agents, but this will take a huge bit out of that enthusiasm for his leadership of the team, as well as tarnishing Holland’s legacy in Edmonton.
But, again, we shall see.