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One million new homes are needed to keep up with an increase of 2.27 million more residents over the next decade
Toronto Metropolitan University’s Centre for Urban Research and Land Development looked at population growth data across Canada and the U.S. from mid-2022 to mid-2023.
The resulting report published on June 10, 2024, stressed that our increased immigration accounted for Toronto’s tremendous growth, making it the fastest-growing city in North America.
Even before the pandemic, we were “one of” the fastest-growing cities. Toronto is also home to a population that is comprised of approximately half immigrants. We are, in fact, the most diverse city in the world, with about 180 languages spoken here.
By 2025, our population is expected to reach nearly 3 million, which brings to mind the housing shortage we are experiencing, for both potential purchasers and renters.
The population explosion speaks well to the rental market, as we have a continuing flow of people who want to rent accommodations.
Although Toronto’s average rent prices have decreased slightly over the past few months, as of June they were still $2,240 for an unfurnished one-bedroom apartment. Rents can go a long way to paying off a mortgage on a single or multi-residential property.
In addition, a lot of the immigrants we welcome work in the skilled trades, and to get more homes and condominiums built, as well as the infrastructure needed to accommodate them, we need workers to fill in the shortage of domestic labour.
A research study by the Smart Prosperity Institute produced a report called “Baby Needs a New Home – Projecting Ontario’s Growing Number of Families and their Housing Needs” (https://institute.smartprosperity.ca/publications/growing-number-households).
Population growth projections by the Ontario Ministry of Finance indicate that we will need one million new homes to keep up with an increase of 2.27 million more residents over the next decade.
A several-thousand worker deficit in the skilled trades is counterproductive to this happening. The Province of Ontario has improved the apprenticeship and skills training system, but we need more, especially in incentives for those who provide residential construction skill sets. It was also reported recently in The Financial Post that 700,000 tradespeople will retire this decade.
Immigrants also add to the diverse tapestry that is desirable by world standards. We can also see expansions of our public transit system being implemented, which will help greatly as more people move to Toronto and buy or rent homes or condos here.
In total, the City of Toronto has 77 new transit stations (commuter rail lines, LRT, subway stops, etc.) either planned or under construction.
The Provincial Government’s Bill 23, More Homes Built Faster Act, calls for areas around rapid transit stations to become more dense, and that is happening slowly.
We have the recent interest rate cut, along with the rental construction HST rebate, the provincial “Cutting Red Tape to Build More Housing” Act, and Toronto City Council’s recently passed “Major Streets” policy, a bylaw that allows for “gentle density” through missing-middle housing in low-rise neighbourhoods.
It is easy to understand why the City of Toronto is so popular on an international basis. We enjoy one of the highest quality-of-life standards in the world. Now, we must continue to find ways to house everyone!
Barbara Lawlor is CEO at Baker Real Estate Inc. Keep current with The Baker
Blog at [email protected].