I have three rules in covering politics – voters are fickle, polls change, campaigns matter. Those rules are going to be put to the test in the current American presidential election.
Prior to Kamala Harris taking over from Joe Biden atop the Democratic Party ticket, Donald Trump was starting to walk away with the election.
Even as Democrat spinners and their sycophants in the media kept saying that Biden was “as sharp as a tack,” voters could see reality. Some at that point were willing to vote for Trump because at least he could finish a sentence, others just were staying away, not planning on voting.
Harris changed that with her entry into the race, Trump could change it again as his campaign gets serious.
Harris has reinvigorated the Democrats more than most thought possible simply by giving those who align with that party a reason to vote for them again. A poll by Ipsos, released last week, showed that in June, just 60% of Democrats in swing states said they were definitely voting, now that it is up to 71%, nearly tied with the Republicans at 73%.
In national polls and in swing states, Harris has closed the gap with Trump.
Shortly after the disastrous debate that led to Biden’s downfall, the rolling averages of polls at 270toWin.com had Trump ahead by 3 points nationally. He was not only leading in battleground states, but he was also turning formerly safe Democrat states into battlegrounds.
This is all part of the argument used to get Biden to step down in the coup launched by party brass.
Trump just starting to spend on ads
In the month of June alone, the Biden campaign, as it was then called, spent $59.4 million compared to the Trump campaign spending just $9.9 million. Despite the Biden campaign outspending Trump 6 to 1, Trump was still winning.
Now, with Harris pulling ahead in national polls and some swing states, the Trump campaign, which had $128 million in cash on hand at the end of June, is getting serious about ad spending.
The folks over at NBC’s From the Political Desk Newsletter pointed to data from AdImpact showing that between June 3 and July 28 the Biden/Harris campaign had spent $65 million on ads in the swing states Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. By comparison, in that same time period, the Trump campaign had spent just $230,000 on advertising and yet was leading or competitive in all of those states which will decide the 2024 election.
Over the last two weeks in those states, the Trump campaign has spent $13 million compared to the Harris campaign spending $16.5 million.
The Democrats will have their convention next week in Chicago. Harris and her running mate Tim Walz will be on full display, they will get mostly glowing media coverage, and they will enjoy the ongoing honeymoon that has been happening for the Harris campaign since the coup that took out Biden and installed Harris.
Trump continues to do rallies like the ones scheduled for Asheville, North Carolina or Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania this week, or even the Spaces conversation he did with Elon Musk on Monday.
Plenty of campaign time left
All of this is the phony war — the real campaign and the real campaign spending will start after Labour Day and continue on relentlessly until November 5.
We’ve seen an assassination attempt in this campaign, a sitting president and confirmed nominee removed and replaced, and we could see more before election day.
Former British prime minister Harold Macmillan reportedly was asked what was the greatest challenge his government faced.
“Events, dear boy, events,” was Macmillan’s reported reply.
That’s the greatest challenge facing anyone trying to surmise what will happen in this presidential election. We’ve already had more “events” than most campaigns and there are still more than 80 days to go before voting day.
Which is why it is important to remember those three rules and repeat them often – voters are fickle, polls change, campaigns matter.
November 5 may seem like it is around the corner but, politically, it’s in a galaxy far, far away and there are plenty of events that could happen between now and then.