Amid pre-election turbulence in United States domestic politics, the Axis of Autocrats — China, Russia, Iran and North Korea —are intensifying cooperation to an unprecedented degree seeking to undermine the rules-based international order. They are on the march in Ukraine, the Middle East and Asia and are linked, as Anne Applebaum wrote in her book Aristocracy Inc., “increasingly by cash, corruption and their common cause of defeating democracies.” Whether and how the U.S. and the West will push back are defining questions for the next decade.
On Ukraine, the Biden administration’s “comprehensive” sanctions against Russia have loopholes allowing Russian banks to make transactions related to energy production — a vital revenue source for the country’s war machine. (Russia’s economy is smaller than that of Texas.) The hesitant, often uncertain weapons supply to Ukraine, along with restrictions on how or where they can be used, contributes to the current stalemate. Alleged fears of escalation only benefit Russia.
The U.S. eventually agreed to arm F-16 fighters for Ukraine with air-to-ground missiles, precision-guided bombing kits and advanced air-to-ground missiles. Initial F-16s are being provided by Denmark and the Netherlands, and subsequently by Belgium and Norway. Ukraine’s surprise attack inside Russia’s Kursk region demonstrated what it can do with unfettered use of the right equipment.
After two years of war, Ukrainian cities have been destroyed creating millions of refugees and hundreds of thousands of civilian and military casualties. The U.S. and its allies need a more consistent strategy to defeat Putin
If Donald Trump were to win in November, his plan to unleash America’s energy potential would stimulate the U.S. economy and diminish Russia’s financial capacity to sustain the war.
Trump’s former secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, and David J. Urban, managing director at the BGR Group, co-wrote a piece in the Wall Street Journal outlining other elements of a winning plan for Ukraine. These would include: increasing the NATO defense spending commitment to 3 per cent of GDP (Canada take note!); creating a US$100-billion (C$140-billion) fund for Ukraine, capping the U.S. share at 20 per cent, as well as a US$500-billion “lend-lease” program; and lifting all restrictions on the types of weapons Ukraine can obtain and use.
Iran is at the centre of the conflict in the Middle East and poses a double dilemma. It is reportedly only weeks away from having nuclear weapons capability and continues to use its proxies — Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis — to destabilize the region. Both the U.S. and Israel have stated firmly that Iran will not be allowed to develop nuclear weapons yet have done nothing concrete to stop it.
By not enforcing sanctions, the Biden administration was estimated by watchdog group United Against a Nuclear Iran in 2023 to have enabled Iran to amass approximately US$80 billion of revenues through oil sales, primarily to China. The funds are used to finance its terrorist acolytes as well as its nuclear ambitions.
While the U.S. administration claims that its security guarantee to Israel is “iron-clad,” it openly disagrees on tactics, mainly over events in Gaza and, most recently, when the U.S. urged restraint after Hezbollah used Iranian missiles to bomb a soccer field in July, killing 12 Israeli children and teenagers playing near the Lebanon border. Hezbollah has relentlessly attacked Israel’s northern border, displacing around 80,000 citizens from an area of 225 square miles.
Israel responded to the latest attack with a stunning display of intelligence and military precision by assassinating the Hezbollah perpetrator, Fuad Shukr, on July 31 in Beirut. Since then, an Israeli airstrike killed senior Hamas commander Samer Mahmoud al-Haj in southern Lebanon.
Also on July 31, a senior Hamas leader residing in a “secure” Tehran facility was killed in an explosion; Israel is suspected to be responsible, though it did not claim responsibility. The death revealed embarrassing gaps in Iran’s security and intelligence systems, and should strike fear among terrorist leaders everywhere.
The U.S. sent an aircraft carrier group, a squadron of fighter planes and other military units to the region just in case.
The Biden-Harris administration banks on the Palestinian Authority (PA) as a key player, post-Gaza. Yet, as was demonstrated remarkably in Beijing three weeks ago, the PA’s many debilitated factions signed an agreement with Hamas and the Islamic Jihad to form a unity Palestinian government in the future — a diplomatic coup for Hamas and China, and a setback for the U.S.
The U.S. wants to end the war in Gaza quickly, preferably before the November elections. Netanyahu remains committed to demolishing Hamas and has yet to agree to a post-conflict scenario.
Iran and Russia play cleverly to fears of escalation. The West can deter both but lacks the will.
Sensing weakness from a lame-duck U.S. president, Iran and its allies may provoke greater instability. Pending reprisals against Israel should prompt the Americans to end the diplomatic pleading and strike back forcefully against Iran’s oil refineries and its drone manufacturers, if not its fledgling nuclear facilities. Autocrats do respect strength.
Former Trump administration national security advisor H.R. McMaster quipped recently, “I think the value or the success … of Trump’s foreign policies and approaches to national security only became apparent to many Americans after Biden reversed them.”
China provokes Taiwan almost daily. While conventional wisdom suggests that a full-scale invasion is unlikely, Peking can harass at will with cyber attacks and military operations designed to destabilize the island democracy.
North Korea has intensified relations with Russia, China and Iran, and poses an even more reckless menace to stability on the Korean peninsula and beyond. While ruthlessly impoverishing its own people, Pyongyang delivers munitions to Russia; Iran provides drones.
China is the crucial link in the chain of current global discord. Beijing seems determined to coordinate anti-American forces, exploit perceived weakness and disrupt U.S. diplomacy. The precarious presidential election campaign only increases the risk of a major conflagration.
National Post
Derek H. Burney is a former 30-year career diplomat who served as Ambassador to the United States of America from 1989-1993.