The volume of houses sold in Northern Ireland has increased by 10% in the last three months while prices are continuing to rise.
The average price of a home here now stands at £211,225 – up around 2.5% and at the highest level since 2008.
But while the Bank of England has made initial moves to reduce interest rates, it’s been predicted that there won’t be any reduction until November.
However, prices still remain down on the 2008 peak, whereby 50% of properties here sold for more than £200,000, compared with 38% in 2024, according to the latest Northern Ireland Quarterly House Price Index Report for the second quarter of the year.
“The main findings of this survey indicate that the housing market has observed price growth over the second quarter of 2024,” it says.
“The findings indicate that alongside the small price increases, there have been rising buyer enquiries, market listings and sales and completions over the quarter.
“Agents suggested that the volume of new listings over the course of the first quarter was more subdued than anticipated, with only 20% agents reporting an increase in listings. In quarter two of the year, 40% of agents surveyed believed listings had increased, with a further 40% indicating that they were consistent with the first quarter of the year.
“In terms of new buyer enquiries, the findings from the survey revealed an overall increase: 55% of agents confirmed that buyer enquires had increased relative to the previous quarter.”
Ursula McAnulty, head of research, Northern Ireland Housing Executive, said: “The information summarised in this most recent report indicates that, in line with both quarter one 2024 and normal seasonal patterns, activity in the housing market remained strong during the second quarter of the year.
“At just over 3,300, the number of transactions in the sample was more than 10% up on quarter one 2024, and the highest recorded by this survey since early 2022. Although annual weighted house price growth remained at a modest rate of 2.5%, the average price of properties transacting rose to £211,225, the highest level since the equivalent quarter in 2008, when the average price of properties sold was £226,934.”
Analysis by property type shows mixed price movements across the market sectors, as the market continues to adjust to the wider economic climate and financial setting. In terms of quarterly price change, the terrace/townhouse sector of the market showed an average price increase of 1.9%.
The detached segment of the market displayed the largest increase of 3.6%, with the apartment sector recording a price increase of 2.9%. The semi-detached sector exhibited nominal price growth of 0.1%.
Annually, both the detached and terrace/townhouse sectors displayed price increases of 5.0% relative to this time last year, whereas the apartment and semi-detached sectors showed small price declines of 1.2% and 0.6%. Overall, the annual rate of price change – which slowed over the course of 2023 – exhibits an unweighted increase of 4.8% compared to quarter two 2023.
And while many regions here saw prices rising, several saw the price of a home dropping on average.
Average prices fell by 4.7% in Antrim and Newtownabbey, with 4.3% in Newry, Mourne and Down, with prices dropping by more than 3% in both Fermanagh and Omagh, and Mid Ulster.
Michael Boyd, chief executive of Progressive Building Society, said: “After a brief dip at the start of the year, the Northern Ireland housing market has resumed its uptrend in the second quarter on the back of easing inflationary environment and a continued tight supply picture.
“A fall in the UK’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) has prompted a slide in mortgage rates and helped encourage buyers to come forward and sellers to list with the result that buyer enquiries, listings and transactions are all pushed higher. At the same time, the lack of new stock coming on the market – whether new builds or for resale – remains constant and has helped underpin prices.
“The housing market in Northern Ireland resumed its march higher in the second quarter of 2024, taking support from a more moribund interest rate environment and the still-tight supply picture.
“The uptake reverses the slight dip in the first three months of the year and has been backed by the gradual slide in inflation over the last few months to the Bank of England’s target of 2%. The expectation of lenders that the Bank of England base rate would fall in August has now materialised with a reduction of 0.25% to 5%.
This has prompted lenders to lower high street rates and encouraged buyers to step forward. That emboldened confidence amongst buyers, and indeed sellers, has meant that activity in the housing market also ticked higher with buyer enquiries, listings and sales transactions all going up on quarter one of 2024.
“Offering further support is the continued tight supply picture with agents noting a marked lack of quality housing stock and slowdown in new build stock coming on to the market. With this situation showing no sign of abating, it’s likely the downside for the market will be limited in the near future.
“However, recent suggestions by the chief economist at the Bank of England that some key measures of inflation are still ‘uncomfortably high’ suggest that rate cuts may not be as swift as borrowers may want. Our central view is that the Bank will not reduce interest rates further until potentially November which may see a cut to 4.75%.”
PULL OUT
£211,225
The average cost of a home in NI
2.5%
The rise in the price of a house