On July 28, millions of Venezuelans took to the streets in a massive and unprecedented display of unity. Despite years of oppression and threats of violence, the Venezuelan people, inspired by the united opposition leadership of María Corina Machado and presidential candidate Edmundo González, came out in droves and elected González with a landslide 70 per cent of the vote. Their votes were for freedom, for their families and for their future.
As quickly as it emerged, that optimism faded to heartbreak when, unsurprisingly, the Maduro regime unilaterally and without evidence declared victory and immediately turned to its usual tools of repression, emboldened by its patrons in Russia and China.
It is critical we all understand that what is happening now in Venezuela, and what other democracies choose to do about it, will be a bellwether for future aspiring democratic movements around the world. That is because while there is much that is unique about Venezuela, the concept of a once thriving democracy descending into abject dictatorship is, sadly, familiar. According to Freedom House, global democracy declined for the 18th straight year in 2023. There are many causes for this, but one is an increasing global trend where democratic leaders confuse rhetoric for results, and propaganda for policy.
Sure, thoughts and prayers are nice. But action is necessary. I have watched with outrage as democratic leaders around the world, including from the United States and Canada, have failed to take any action to hold the regime responsible — even failing to whip enough votes in the recent emergency meeting of the Organization of American States (OAS) to simply call for transparency. Instead — with the exception of some wonderful leaders in Latin America like Argentina, Paraguay and Ecuador — most nations took over 72 hours to do anything aside from sharing mealy-mouthed slogans expressing “concern.”
There is a word for what is happening, but it is not “concern.” It is fraud. Right before our eyes, Nicolás Maduro is conducting an electoral coup against the Venezuelan people. It should not be hard to say. It would not be, were what happened on July 28 to happen in our own countries. Perhaps there is some bias that underlies those in power around the world, who would hold Venezuelans to a lower democratic standard than they would hold themselves. Perhaps it is merely laziness, or the same lack of moral courage that seems to infect nearly all aspects of modern political society. Whatever the cause, the result is perfectly clear: if the international community cannot unite behind the remarkable opportunity created by the Venezuelan people now, Venezuela’s future — and that of other fragile nations — will be very dark indeed.
The future of Venezuela has of course always been in the hands of her people. But the international community can and should be doing more to make it clear to the Maduro regime — and future would-be dictators around the world — that any attempts to steal the will of the people will be met with a swift and united response.
First, presidents and foreign ministers — not merely the sub-secretary level — must publicly recognize the opposition’s win and denounce Maduro’s flagrant attempt at fraud, as the U.S. finally did on Thursday evening. It is no longer time to speak of “verification,” which the opposition has already provided and which Maduro never will. It is time to speak of victory.
Second, those same nations should recreate an international coalition, like the one active after Maduro’s theft of the 2018 presidential election, that isolates Maduro and his loyalists. This can be done through the reimposition of sanctions, but also penalties brought through international bodies like the OAS and the United Nations. Raising the price on Maduro’s head through the narcotics rewards program is also an option, as is issuing arrest warrants on the regime via the International Criminal Court, as was recently recommended by OAS Secretary General Luis Almagro. While maximum pressure has been tried in the past by the U.S., it has never been accompanied by either committed European pressure or internal pressure in the way that María Corina Machado is applying it now. Increasing external pressure is important not only to send a signal to Maduro and other potential dictators, but also to the people of Venezuela that the world will not leave them behind.
Third, as Machado has explained, the goal of the opposition remains a peaceful negotiation. This has long been the objective of both the U.S. and Canada; however, recent efforts by the U.S. to incentivize Maduro to come to the table through the unilateral lifting of sanctions, release of convicted felons and repatriation of indicted Maduro allies were ineffective in achieving the desired outcomes of allowing Machado to run, securing the release of the hundreds of Venezuelan political prisoners and stopping the forced disappearances and extrajudicial killings being carried out by the regime.
That said, simply because the tactics deployed were ineffective does not mean the strategy itself is flawed. The opposition, along with key international leaders, must consider viable off-ramps for Maduro regime officials to incentivize their resignations. This may mean some measure of amnesty for Maduro or his cronies, distasteful as that is. But there is a broader objective at hand. Creating a framework that lays out the options for amnesty, combined with direct pressure, may force Maduro to engage in a true political process.
There are many possible options, but we know one thing. While the democracies of the world hem and haw about what to say, the Maduro regime is taking real action. It has threatened Machado’s life. It has arrested more than 1,000 Venezuelans and murdered nearly two dozen. It has disappeared human rights activists and major opposition leaders like Freddy Superlano, head of opposition party Voluntad Popular. And it has committed the single most egregious example of provable fraud in its history.
The clock is ticking. As the saying goes, “All that is necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.”
So, let’s do something.
National Post
Carrie Filipetti is the Executive Director of the Vandenberg Coalition and former Deputy Special Representative for Venezuela and Deputy Assistant Secretary for Cuba and Venezuela under the Trump administration.