Adding to the bad news the party and Prime Minister Trudeau have experienced, recently a new poll by Leger for The National Post shows Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives at 41% support against 23% for the Trudeau Liberals and 20% for Jagmeet Singh’s NDP.
Those numbers match the stubborn stickiness of various polling numbers in favour of the Conservatives.
In fact, the last time Trudeau led Poilievre in Canadians’ preference for prime minister was in May 2023. As of July 29, 2024, Poilievre is preferred by 29% to Trudeau’s 16%.
Since then the Conservatives’ trend line has been consistently up with the opposite true for the Liberals. The NDP trend line is relatively flat over that time.
Not surprisingly the province giving the highest support to the Conservatives is Alberta at 63%, with Quebec offering only 24% to the Poilievre team.
The Liberals’ best score comes from Atlantic Canada at 30%. Perhaps that tax break on home heating oil has paid off.
Only 8% of Albertans support the Liberals.
There are a number of likely reasons for the Liberal’s poor showing.
Economic worries are top of mind for people and that doesn’t bode well for the party in charge.
Trudeau fatigue is a real thing. He has gone from a national and international darling to a silly, dress-up fanatic on the world stage and an ethics challenged, often tone-deaf and arrogant leader in the minds of more and more of us at home.
Liberals must look at the apparent turn of fortunes for the Democrats when President Joe Biden deferred to increasing demand from Democratic supporters and declined to run again.
Suddenly the likely easy march back to the White House for Republican Donald Trump didn’t look so easy.
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But should a similar push off the cliff happen to Trudeau, political pundits and Liberal operators struggle to name an heir apparent that could galvanize the public sufficiently to change the current devastating numbers.
Sixty-six per cent responded in the poll to say they were somewhat or very dissatisfied with the Trudeau government.
Another factor is revealed in the Leger poll and that is Canadians worry about national security.
Respondents were asked about an increase in aggressive international behaviour from a group of undemocratic countries, including Russia, China, Iran and North Korea.
Seventy per cent of respondents agreed with the statement, “While the conflicts listed above being pursued by different undemocratic nations may be a long way from Canada, they represent a serious threat to our current way of life, our values, beliefs and freedoms.”
Seventy-six per cent said it was somewhat or very important that Canada stand with our democratic allies against undemocratic countries.
While the focus of the Trudeau government, especially under Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault, has been solidly on a program of fighting global warming with measures such as the unpopular carbon tax, 42% of those polled said yes to the statement, “Is the current Canadian government focused too much on climate change and not enough on global security questions?”
Eighteen per cent had no answer to that question, so a slight majority of decided responders do not support the Liberal’s aggressive agenda.
What can Liberals do to turn things around in the face of these numbers?
Quite possibly nothing.
But there is a long way to go before an election.