What’s in a byelection? These days, a lot. The Liberals’ loss in the supposedly safe seat of Toronto—St. Paul’s in June sent shock waves through the party. The riding had been Liberal red for decades, most recently under cabinet minister Carolyn Bennett who held it for 27 years with an average margin of 30 per cent. This time, Conservative candidate Don Stewart eked out a win by 633 votes, or 1.71 per cent, prompting intense speculation on the future of Liberal leader Justin Trudeau and some of his key players, including Deputy leader Chrystia Freeland.
Now the Liberals are gearing up for another pair of byelections, in the Quebec riding of LaSalle—Emard—Verdun and the Manitoba riding of Elmwood—Transcona, both to be held Sept. 16. The first contest appears to be a three-way split between the Liberals, the Bloc Québécois and the NDP, while the second pits the NDP against the Tories. The results could thus be pivotal not only for the Liberals, but for the opposition parties as well.
Let’s start with LaSalle—Verdun—Emard. Until January, the riding was represented by former justice minister David Lametti, who last won by 20 points in 2021. But a Mainstreet poll published on July 9 showed the Liberals at 29 per cent, the Bloc at 26, the NDP at 25, and the Conservatives at 14. The poll was taken before the naming of municipal councillor Laura Palestini as the Liberal candidate, a move that caused considerable controversy in the local riding association after she was hand-picked by Trudeau without a nomination contest. The NDP is running Craig Sauvé, a councillor and musician, while the Bloc is fielding political staffer Louis-Philippe Sauvé (no relation),
The fact the Liberals were willing to short-circuit the democratic process paradoxically underscores the importance they ascribe to the race. They know the other parties will throw everything they have at LaSalle—Emard—Verdun: NDP leader Jagmeet Singh is already there campaigning with Sauvé. The Liberals can’t afford to lose, because the riding is a double-referendum on Trudeau: both as leader and as a Quebecer. If he can’t pull off a win in his home province, on the island of Montreal where Liberals won every seat but one in 2019 and 2021, then all bets are off for 2025.
But the NDP and Conservatives have a lot on the line as well. If the NDP pulls off an upset in Quebec, they will be seen as giant killers. However, they need to also defend Elmwood—Transcona to deflect a blue wave that threatens to eat into their blue-collar base in Manitoba and across the country.
The NDP has held Elmwood—Transcona under two generations of Blaikies, father Bill and son Daniel, almost continuously since 1988, while the Tories usually place second and scored one win in 2011. Now, the Conservatives are going after it with a vengeance. Leader Pierre Poilievre held a 1,000-person rally there over the weekend and the party is dubbing the byelection “a mini-carbon tax referendum,” keeping the focus on the unpopular Liberals. The Tories are taking aim at the NDP’s supply-and-confidence deal that has kept the government in power, which according to Conservative candidate Colin Reynolds, “does not represent union workers like me.”
Reynolds is an electrician and “proud union member,” and his candidacy is clearly designed to cement the Tories’ growing popularity among union voters. The Liberals are also running a union leader, retired teacher Ian MacIntyre, while the NDP is running the executive director of a small business association, Leila Dance. Observers say that the party is counting on a boost from popular NDP premier Wab Kinew, whom Daniel Blaikie went to work for after resigning the seat and paving the way for the current byelection.
If the Tories don’t win Elmwood—Transcona, it won’t be the end of the world. But if the Liberals fail to capture LaSalle—Emard—Verdun, the consequences will be severe. Caucus morale will plummet and more Liberal MPs will choose not to run again. The cumulative effect will make the Liberal leadership a poisoned chalice, scaring off candidates who could revitalize the party, and condemning it to third party status or worse. Trudeau needs to ask himself if that’s really the legacy he wants to leave.
Postmedia News