OTTAWA — While developments in U.S. presidential politics unfold with lighting speed, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is enjoying quiet walks on the beach as he vacations in British Columbia, seemingly untroubled by any pressure to step aside for his party, as President Joe Biden recently did.
In just over the last 48 hours, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris has consolidated her support as the Democratic frontrunner to replace Biden, who announced on Sunday that he would give up his plan to be the party’s presidential nominee in November’s election. Harris has secured the endorsement of most Democrats in Congress and all the country’s Democratic governors, signed up tens of thousands of volunteers, and managed to swiftly raise a whopping US$100 million.
The rapid upheaval in the Democratic party bears no resemblance to Canada’s Liberals, who have been quietly disgruntled about their own upcoming fate — while not doing much about it.
Liberal strategist Andrew Perez was one of the first Liberals to call for Trudeau to resign after the party’s shocking defeat in the Toronto—St. Paul’s byelection in June, but he was openly discussing the party’s dire situation on the ground long before that. While he thinks Biden’s departure shows that “things can move quickly,” he does not see the Liberal party mobilizing in the same way.
“To me, it seems like a caucus that’s just sleepwalking to its death,” said the Toronto-based principal of Perez Strategies.
Biden’s departure came weeks after a disastrous debate performance in which he looked frail and tired. Despite insisting that he was staying in the race to run against former president Donald Trump, Biden ultimately decided to step down in the face of growing pressure from the top party brass, and private discussions about his bleak polling numbers.
In a statement on Sunday, Biden said it is “in the best interest” of his party and the country for him to step down and focus on fulfilling his duties for the remainder of his term.
Perez said that Liberals could “draw a bit of inspiration” from the U.S. Democrats.
“So, if I’m a Liberal MP, maybe that’s a model. Maybe if MPs — and not just MPs, but party statesmen and senior figures in the party — begin to exert more pressure through these back-channel conversations, like they did with Biden, maybe there’s hope,” he said.
Jonathan Kalles, a former adviser to Trudeau, now senior director at public-affairs firm McMillan Vantage, said there is “no major push” for Trudeau to resign from within the party as things stand right now.
“You haven’t seen names the equivalent of the Obamas and the Pelosi and the Schumers… calling on him to drop out, which you saw in the States. You haven’t seen that. And with all due respect to Wayne Long, that’s not comparable,” said Kalles, referring to the one Liberal MP who has called for Trudeau to step down.
“And a few former ministers, some of whom are disgruntled… I’m not sure that’s very persuasive,” he added.
Kalles said that, unlike Biden who expressed his support for Harris to replace him as presidential candidate, Trudeau has no “heir apparent” that could take his place.
Many Liberals, including Trudeau, would like to see former central banker Mark Carney join their ranks, but he has given no clear indication that he intends to join the government at a time when it could be relegated to the opposition benches in the next election.
“There’s no one that would unify the party and everybody would get behind, I don’t think. And I think everyone acknowledges that. If there were a clear alternative, a Paul Martin to Jean Chrétien, I think we might be having a different discussion,” said Kalles.
Still, things could change quickly in Canada too.
The Liberals are set to announce the date of another byelection, this time in the Montreal riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun to replace former justice minister David Lametti.
While it is considered a safe Liberal riding (as was Toronto-St. Paul’s), the NDP has a well-known local candidate, city councillor Craig Sauvé, who has been campaigning for months. The Liberals recently announced that another city councillor, Laura Palestini, would be their candidate.
“I think if there’s another seismic event, like another byelection loss in a Liberal stronghold, that that’s going to blow open the doors for more conversation,” said Perez.
Trudeau has until July 30 to announce the date of the byelection, and the vote is set to happen by September 16 at the latest, which is also when MPs come back to Ottawa.
That also means Liberals will have more time to regroup and talk amongst themselves about what, if anything, they would like to do about their party’s leadership.
Perez said that while he has called for Trudeau to resign, it is “only one piece of the puzzle” and he thinks the party needs to engage “in sweeping renewal” on many fronts, including its policy agenda and its technology and fundraising infrastructure.
Perez said he worries that the longer Trudeau stays on without addressing those challenges, the more likely the party could be moving towards a situation where it is “decimated,” without the human resources or infrastructure to rebuild.
“Liberals don’t like to have these conversations. We like to see ourselves as the national governing party, but I think in the day and age we live in, there’s no guarantees, and I think Liberals need to fight for a Liberal party, and that starts right now.”
National Post
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