As Donald Trump chooses Ohio Senator JD Vance as his running mate, European politicians and diplomats are preparing for the changes the pair could bring to Europe if elected.
Those in Europe fear what a second Trump term could mean for security, trade, and the prospects for the war in Ukraine.
Vance is a vocal critic of US aid to Ukraine, telling this year’s Munich Security Conference that Europe should wake up to the US having to “pivot” its focus to East Asia.
He added: “The American security blanket has allowed European security to atrophy.”
J.D. Vance has called for Ukraine to cede territory to end the war
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Nils Schmid, foreign affairs spokesman of Germany’s ruling Social Democrats, said Vance was “more radical than Trump in his desire to suspend all further US military aid to Ukraine”.
He added: “In that respect, he’s more isolationist than Trump.”
Vance has called for Ukraine to cede territory to end the war, a position closely aligned with the terms laid out by Russian President Vladimir Putin to begin peace talks.
However, Kyiv has rejected these calls for peace talks as Russia occupies large parts of Ukraine.
If Trump wins the election, he intends to demand these talks immediately and, according to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, he has “well-founded plans” to do so.
Inna Sovsun, a Ukrainian lawmaker from the liberal Golos party said that Ukraine would need to “think of a new strategy of communication with the Americans” if Trump was elected, arguing “the person who openly said ‘Ukraine is going to have to cede some territory to the Russians’ cannot be the best representation of US politics.”
Trump’s choice of running mate has concreted US allies’ concerns that he will run an “American first” administration
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Trump’s choice of running mate has concreted US allies’ concerns that he will run an “American first” administration, implicating Europe’s defence and economic security.
Rob Johnson, who recently stood down as director of the UK Ministry of Defence unit, said: “If Trump is elected and continues with the policy preferred by Vance, he may announce the abolition of Nato or US leadership of it at least.
“That would be the signal for Russia to regenerate its power over a decade with China, and apply more coercion against Nato.”
He added: “We are entering a very dark period indeed.”
Adding to tensions, Vance suggested in a speech last week that under a Labour government, the UK could become an “Islamist country”.
J.D. Vance suggested that under a Labour government the UK could become an “Islamist country”
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Adding to a discussion about what would be the “first truly Islamist country that will get a nuclear weapon,” he mentioned Pakistan and Iran before adding: “Maybe it’s actually the UK since Labour just took over.”
Many European officials are also worried that Trump could impose blanket tariffs on imports that could damage the EU economy and there are also concerns about the impact of his policies on the Nato alliance.
During Trump’s presidency, the US imposed tariffs on EU-produced steel and aluminium which were paused under Joe Biden’s administration.
But Trump has since hinted at a 10 per cent tariff on all overseas imports should he get back into the White House.
Nils Schmid said: “The only thing we know for sure is there will be punitive tariffs levelled on the European Union so we have to prepare for another round of trade wars.”