As was widely presumed, Europeans were in a mood for change and shifted to the right in European Parliamentary elections this past weekend. Voters decided they had had enough of uncontrolled immigration, lack of public safety and slow economies, possibly setting a radically new direction for the European Union over the next five years.
In Germany, Chancellor Olaf Scholtz’s centre-left Social Democratic Party was left in third place, among German parties, behind the centre-right Christian Democratic Union in first place. More embarrassingly, the far-right Alternative for Germany finished second. In Italy, voters decided that Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s centre-right party, the Brothers of Italy, are not, in fact, the fascist radicals they had been derided as when she came to power and reinforced her mandate. Spain too veered right.
There were, however, few countries where the results were as striking as in France. In a clear repudiation of President Emmanuel Macron’s performance and government, voters stampeded to the Rassemblement Nationale (RN), which received more than double the votes of any other French party, accounting for 31.4 per cent of the vote.
There are few citizenries in Europe who let their leaders know unequivocally when they’ve had enough as well as the French. Macron’s Renaissance party was relegated to a distant second place, with only 14.6 per cent of the vote, a serious fall from the 22.4 per cent it received in 2019. All in all, the results are another humiliation for Macron and a victory for his sworn foes, Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella of the RN, who called on Macron to dissolve parliament and give the people a say domestically.
In an extraordinary political gamble Macron has done just that. Parliament has been dissolved with snap elections set for June 30 and July 7. If Macron is correct in his assessment of the French political landscape, he could be seriously hamstringing his largest rival and dealing a potentially devastating blow to the right wing of French politics. If wrong, he has tossed jet fuel on the political fires burning in France, and torched any prospect of success in the time he has left as president. These are the stakes.
In his address to the nation, Macron said he was giving the French people another chance to decide on the future of the French National Assembly. It was, he said, an act of trust in both the people and the democracy of the republic. Though never mentioned by name, the spectre of Marine LePen and the RN loomed over his entire speech. Channelling a Charles de Gaullesque circa 1968 message, he noted that in times of crisis France had always known how to unite and work for a better future, and not “fold or yield to demagoguery.”
For followers of European and French politics Macron’s marketing of the situation must be taken with a decent dose of incredulity. Has Emmanuel Macron — the most out of touch man in western politics, best known for his strident arrogance and derision of the unwashed masses — suddenly found religion and decided the people know best?
We cannot completely ignore the theoretical possibility that perhaps the European results were indeed a sign too glaring for even someone as self-assured and aloof as Macron to ignore. However, while Macron may not be known for his humility and common touch, he is known as a savvy and astute political chess player.
Two possibilities emerge. Either Macron has acted because he thinks the RN isn’t actually that strong and will lose his snap election, or he is playing the very long game and calling the RN’s bluff. By doing so, he hopes to force the RN into controlling parliament, where Macron would choose a prime minister from its ranks, with the hope that the party’s popularity will be dragged down by the realities of governing. That would eliminate Le Pen and the French right as a serious threat to him in the 2027 presidential elections. Either way, it is an enormous gamble by the French president.
Based on past results and popular vote percentages received, were the RN to match their European election results in the upcoming French parliamentary elections, they could well win a majority. Fall short of that, however, and a coalition will be necessary.
Finding partners for the RN will likely prove difficult. Until very recently Jean-Marie Le Pen — Marine Le Pen’s father and founder of the party then known as the Front National — still cast a sombre, racist shadow over his daughter’s attempts to distance herself from its unsavoury roots. Macron’s gamble rests on this still being true — at least enough to prevent a majority or effective coalition and render the RN a lame duck government their supporters will abandon.
Macron should be careful, however. Jaques Chirac tried this trick in 1997 with the hopes of electing a more centre-right parliament; the voters returned him a left wing one. Chirac was then forced to govern together with a socialist Prime Minister. This, for Macron, is the risk for his potential reward.
Marine Le Pen and the RN have long been Emmanuel Macron’s bête noire. Little by little she and her party have made gains in a country frustrated by out-of-control immigration, lack of public safety, sluggish economy and a president whose instinct has generally been to dismiss anyone who raises these issues. While her detractors view her and RN with the same revulsion and fear as many Democrats in the U.S. would view Trump and his party, it cannot be denied that her message is resonating with many French citizens in the street. The European election prove she and the RN are on to something significant.
The risk is real. Under Le Pen the RN has managed to rebrand. Many French no longer consider her or her party to be the far-right threat it once was. Though not by any means moderates, the RN is now considered a credible alternative in a country frustrated by out-of-control immigration, lack of public safety, a sluggish economy and a president whose instinct has generally been to dismiss anyone who raises these issues.
Marine Le Pen and the RN have long been Emmanuel Macron’s bête noire. While her detractors view her and RN with the same revulsion and fear as many Democrats in the U.S. would view Trump and his party, it cannot be denied that her message is resonating with many French citizens in the street. The European elections prove she and the RN are on to something significant.
Emmanuel Macron has gambled that fear of the past will once again save his mandate and protect France from a right-wing menace in 2027. It’s a roll of the dice with a potentially huge payoff but which sets up the possibility of an even larger personal political catastrophe if he is wrong. It is, in other words, not a move he would make if he felt there were many better options left.
National Post
Adam Pankratz is a lecturer at the University of British Columbia’s Sauder School of Business.